Pinnacle -3 +104 BET365 -3 -110 SportsInteraction -2½ -108 5DIMES -3 +100 Bookmaker -3 -110

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

NEW ORLEANS -3 +104 over Tampa Bay

8:40 PM EST. Yesterday, we wrote about how media bias influences the market, and just like the Ravens, the talking heads are all over the Buccaneers here. The most significant point to be made is that "this is not the same Buccaneers team that was blown out by the Saints in Week 9." Really? Why not? This team barely got past the worst team to ever host a playoff game last Sunday in the Football Team. If you cashed on the Bucs -7½ or pushed on -8, as we did, you were thanking your lucky stars. Tampa Bay probably should have lost outright, nevermind covered depending on when you jumped in. The Bucs are playing into this narrative as well. Coach Bruce Arians said this week, "we're doing different things than we were doing back then, especially in the opener." That opener? The Saints won that game, too, bringing their record against the Bradys this season to 2-0.

You have also likely heard ad nauseam that it is difficult for one team to beat another team three times in a season and that Brady specifically has never lost to the same team three times in the same season. Perhaps you've read that Brady will want revenge after the Saints slapped him with the most lopsided loss of his career in that 38-3 drubbing on November 9. Since that blowout, the Bucs have been rolling, racking up 34 points per game. However, if you look at their résumé, it is not impressive. Tampa played exactly two teams (Rams, Chiefs) with a winning record over their last eight games (Football Team included) and lost both games outright. The Bucs also struggled in a 31-27 win at Atlanta, where they needed a signature Falcons collapse after going down 17-0 and 24-7 in the first half. The Bucs’ other victories came against the Panthers, Vikings, Lions, Falcons (again) and the aforementioned, Football Team.

Brady versus Brees highlights the marquee here, and it is the former that has had the praise heaped upon him. Meanwhile, Brees has been sent halfway out to pasture after another injury-plagued year. The big difference between these two teams is that the Bucs are totally dependent on Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr., while Brees is just another cog in the Saints machine. Hell, New Orleans ran a third string tight end out there when Brees was hurt and it did not miss a beat. It's also worth noting that the Saints were without star wide receiver Michael Thomas for most of the season, but he returned last week in their 21-9 win over the Bears.

There is no denying the greatness of Brady. He has more playoff wins than any quarterback ever (31), and that is a feat that is unlikely to be matched. He has defeated 17 different teams in the playoffs. Hell, no other quarterback has even 17 playoff victories. Just this season, he's thrown for 4633 yards, 40 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions. He led the Bucs to their first playoff appearance in nearly 20 years. You get the point. One could slobber over Brady's accomplishments all day if one was so inclined but we are not. Of those 12 INTs, five were thrown against these Saints. Numbers are funny that way; you can use them to push any narrative you like.

This game opened with the Saints as -3½ point chalk, which we believe is a "favorite friendly" number. When oddsmakers slap the "hook" on a key number, they are enticing the "efficient" market to bite on the pooch. It doesn't always work out that way, but in this case, it appears the market is tripping over itself to get to the window to get down on the Bradys. Pedigree and slobbering aside, we have an opportunity to step in and back the superior Saints, who were already short priced to begin. However, rather than lay the extra juice at -2½, we'll gladly sell back a half point at plus money. If we thought that half point was going to factor into this game, we would not be betting it. When we back a side, we expect a blowout, thus, we'll gladly swallow these points and so should you.

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