Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST.
NEW ENGLAND -3 -101 over N.Y. Jets
1:00 PM EST. What is there to be said about the 2020 Patriots? Well, for starters, New England will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008, while also posting its first losing season since 2000, which makes this just the second sub .500 year in the Bill Belichick era. To say the Pats stock is at its lowest since BB took the reigns two decades ago would not be an understatement. New England was just embarrassed on Monday Night Football at home against the Bills in a game that Cam Newton was pulled for his poor performance. However, Jason Stidham wasn’t any better and BB has not named a starter for Week 17. When you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks. Tommy B sends his best from Tampa.
The Jets have officially played themselves out of the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes and if they don’t watch the fuck out, they’ll play themsleves out of Justin Fields too. We kid of course, as Gang Green has locked in the #2 pick in April’s draft and can only finish with three wins at best. That total is one that seemed impossible just a month ago, but back-to-back wins over the Rams and the Covid-infected Browns have the Jets stock on the upswing.
Belichick doesn’t want to help the Jets. There was even speculation that he might throw this game to keep the Jets out of the top draft slot. That's no longer an issue and now the market is overvaluing the Jets in a big way. They were a 17-point underdog when they caught the Rams sleeping. As bad as the Patriots have been this season, they've been better than the Jets, and that's probably still true even if they give Jarrett Stidham some run to see what they've got in their young backup quarterback. The biggest gap between these teams comes on special teams, where the Patriots are No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA and the Jets rank 29th. The time to bet the Jets has passed. If you didn’t get them at +17 versus the Rams or +6½ against the Covid riddled Brownies why would you want them now taking back a measly field goal? We started this writeup by reminding you that the Pats haven’t had a losing season since 2000. That’s probably the last time they were this small a favorite over the Jets too.
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NEW ENGLAND -3 -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)