Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:45 AM EST
SAN FRANCISCO -8½ -102 over Miami
4:05 PM EST. The biggest market over and under-reactions occur for or against teams coming off a prime time game. Unlike the slate of 1 PM games when folks are watching the NFL Red Zone or flipping around like a madman, the isolated prime time games get watched in their entirety. Last week, on Sunday Night Football, the market watched in horror, as the winless Eagles, a team that looked un-bettable, went into San Francisco and beat the 49ers outright as a 9½-point underdog. You would have been hard pressed to find a single individual that was anxious to get down on the Eagles.
Another game of high interest last week was Seattle as a 5 or 5½-point favorite over Miami in Miami. For every 10 people that wagered on that game, nine of them took the favorite and cashed their ticket but comfortable it was not. Miami scared the bejeebers out of anyone that faded them and gained some serious market credibility in the process. The week before, Miami crushed Jacksonville on Thursday Night Football.
We understand that the 49ers are getting some healthy bodies back but trust us when we suggest that the market is going to overreact to San Francisco’s horrible showing last week. Ironically, the price on the 49ers here opened as almost the identical to last week’s price over Philadelphia. which presents another hypothesis. Miami is better than Philadelphia therefore the Dolphins should be receiving far less points than Philadelphia was getting against the same team at the same venue. There is a massive double-reaction in play here and it sets up the 49ers to be one of the better bets of the week. Have you ever heard anyone mention Tua time? You will hear all about it at some point in this game. Fitzmagic gets benched and Tua comes in because the game gets out of hand.
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SAN FRANCISCO -8½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)