Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST
CINCINNATI -1½ -103 over Jacksonville
1:00 PM EST. When we first looked at this game, the Jags were getting a field-goal and we didn’t like the idea of spotting points with an 0-3 team. However, we have since changed gears because the line has dropped significantly. When a number drops, it catches our attention and prompts us to delve deeper.
As for the Bengals, unfortunately, close doesn't count, The Bengals are indeed 0-3 but they can easily be 3-0 after being within a touchdown in every game. Seriously, let’s assume for a second that they got that one small bounce in each game and were 3-0. Then what would this price be? Joe Burrow is now in line to get his first victory of the season. Burrow has thrown for over 300 yards in each of the last two games and totaled five touchdowns. Better yet, he had no interceptions. This is a QB with a high football IQ and the talent to match. You don’t think he sees a great opportunity here to give the good people of Cincinnati some hope? There's no doubt that he'll be a great quarterback but more importantly, today we get him at a bargain bin price.
The Jaguars had it all, a home game against the worst team of 2019, Miami, and the Dolphins entered missing their best cornerback. The Dolphins were 0-2 and the Jags were 1-1 and almost 2-0 with a three-point loss in Tennessee. The game was featured on Thursday night and thus became the first head-scratcher of the season with the Jags just playing flat and the Dolphins taking advantage. We now have to wonder if perhaps Indy in Week 1 and Tennessee in Week 2 were taking the Jags lightly. The Fish were in no position to take anyone lightly and buried the Jags.
Jacksonville’s projection to start the year was among the worst, if not, the worst in the league. Just two weeks in and their stock soared. From where we sit, the accolades being thrown Jacksonville’s way are and were premature. Yeah, the Jags figure to be better this week but who are we to trust more? Joe Burrow has proven that when he smells blood, he goes aggressively after the kill. Gardiner Minshew is a nice story and his teammates love him but at the end of the day, Jacksonville should always be taking more points than this when they are not in Jacksonville. Sometime in December, folks will look back at this line and wonder how the f**k they missed betting Cinci when they were such a small price at home over Jacksonville. We will not be among those wondering.
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CINCINNATI -1 -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)