Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST
MIAMI +5½ -108 over Seattle
1:00 PM EST. The Seahawks appear to have transformed into the NFC’s version of the Chiefs in that they put up video game numbers every week with Russell Wilson dominating like Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl. Seattle has a perfect 3-0 record both straight up and against the spread (ATS) with their last two covers coming in high profile spots over the Patriots and Cowboys. Wilson posted five majors against Dallas in Week 3, which brings his season total to 14. If he were to keep up this pace he’d clear Peyton Manning’s record setting 55 TD passes by 19. We could go on and on about the rip roaring pace that Wilson is on, but we trust the talking heads to eat it up this week.
For all the waves the Seachickens are making in the early season, we’re not sure this team is quite ready to be spotting a very “dog friendly” price on the road. First, their offensive line is average at best, as it is giving up three sacks per game. If we’re going to extrapolate Wilson’s absurd touchdown tear, let's also talk about the fact this guy is on pace to be sacked 48 times this season. That doesn’t bode well for his longevity. One of these times Wilson is going to get hit and he’s not going to get back up. When that happens, the gig is up for Pete Carroll and company. Incidentally, that moron Pete Carroll should be kissing the ground that Russell Wilson walks on because Wilson bails his foolishness out often. In addition to its soaring stock, Seattle hosts the Sunday night game in Week 4 against the Vikings. This sets up as the perfect sandwich spot against an AFC opponent after that big win over the Cowboys. Furthermore, the Seahawks have not allowed fewer than 397 passing yards in any game. Their defense is giving up more yards than every team except the Jags, Giants and Jets. Winning and covering with a defense that gets shredded every week is not sustainable.
The Dolphins are coming off a Thursday Night Football win over the Jaguars, but we doubt a win like that holds much weight with a team that was also dummied by Cam Newton and Josh Allen the two weeks prior. We’re not in the business of breaking down the X’s and O’s because if we were, the case for the Fish is not an easy one to make. However, rarely are the books in the habit of giving money away. We've stressed again and again that dogs favored in this range don’t just cover at a high rate, but they often win outright. See the Lions and Panthers last Sunday and many, many more over the years. Is an outright win out of the question here for Miami? Of course not. Situationally, this one checks many boxes.
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MIAMI +5½ -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)