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Posted Friday, November 15 at 2:00 PM EST

NFL 2019

Week 11

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change last year and ended up going 81-57. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

Denver +10 -108 over MINNESOTA

1:00 PM EST. Denver is coming off its bye after making the change at quarterback because of an injury to Joe Flacco. Brandon Allen got the win in his first start over the Browns in Week 9 and his team had the perfect game plan for success. The Broncos played good defense and limited their turnovers. Denver was a four-point pooch in that game against Cleveland and it won by five points. With coverage of the NFL moving at a lighting like pace, we're not so sure that Broncos' victory is going to be top of mind in the market. That's especially true when you consider the position the Vikings may hold in that regard after a big Sunday night win over the Cowboys.

The Vikings are 7-3 and coming off a big prime time win on Sunday Night Football over the Cowboys. This victory is nice to be sure, but it was the second straight game the Vikings have been outgained, with their loss to the Matt Moore led Chiefs being the first. Any time a team cashes a ticket in a high profile stand alone contest, they are often overvalued the next week out. This is the second time the Vikings have been favored by double digits this season. Minnesota was -16½ points at home against the Redskins in Week 8 and did not cover the number. Hell, the Vikes barely scored 17 points (19). This week Minny is being asked to spot a big price with a very low total, which is not usually a high percentage play. The books have to protect against teasers, which is another reason why this number is as high as it is. What happens if Denver gets a bounce or two. Maybe a turnover or even a defensive or special teams touchdown? The Broncos do not have to score many points here before covering this number becomes a tough swim for the Vikes. The prudent play here is to scoop up these points with an undervalued underdog in what oddsmakers have pegged as one of the lowest scoring games of the week.

TAMPA BAY +5½ -105 over New Orleans

1:00 PM EST. At 7-2, the Saints are going to get cut some slack here, as we've heard again and again this week that this trip to Tampa is the perfect bounce-back spot. Really? It's in our nature not to overreact to just one game, but when you lose to a team like Atlanta, by double digits, at home, we're going to take a much closer look. The Falcons may have given the rest of the league the blueprint to defeat New Orleans and it's not one that most would expect. Stop the run and make Drew Brees beat you. The Falcons made Brees look every bit as old as his well worn 40 years should. Father Time doesn't lie down in the middle of the ring for anybody and Brees is no different. Perhaps more attention should be paid to how the Saints won when Brees was sidelined earlier this season. With Teddy "Wobbly Balls" Bridgwater under center, the Saints focused heavily on the run. In his five starts, Bridgewater averaged just 241 passing yards per game and he had only one 300+ yard game, which just so happened to come against these Buccaneers. The Saints were a three point favorite that day and are now spotting a bigger price on the road just because Brees is back.

We rarely, if ever, break down the X's and O's and actually suggest you ignore that garbage when the talking heads on TV start rattling off whatever stats they need to make their point, but we'll say this about the Bucs. They may be an utter disappointment at 3-6, but if they do one thing well, it’s stop the run. If all things are equal and "in-game variances" are limited, Tampa is in good shape to compete here. They say you can often throw the point spread out when it comes to these division games and the Saints proved that last Sunday. Like the Falcons, the Bucs have nothing more to play for other than to spoil the season of a division foe, but that can be a hell of a motivator. None of this will matter, however, if Tampa continues to turn the ball over as it did again last week against the Cardinals. The Bucs have coughed up the rock one way or another 21 times, including 15 turnovers in the last four games. The case against Tampa is an easy one, but those low expectations and then some are reflected in this line and we would not be surprised if the price on the Saints continues to climb until kickoff Sunday morning. If it does, there's a great chance the Bucs will make our board.

CAROLINA -4 -108 over Atlanta

1:00 PM EST. We're not going to spend a lot of time on the Panthers here, as this is mostly a play against the visiting Falcons. However, at 5-4, there is nothing wrong with backing the Cats if the price is right and after some significant movement, this looks like a good spot. Carolina features the hottest offensive player in the game in Christian McCaffrey, who is tied for the lead league in touchdowns, while also being the NFL’s top rusher. Carolina went toe to toe with the Packers in Green Bay, but that might not be obvious on the surface. The  Panthers did not cover when you look at the box score, but they were on the goal line with a chance to score a major on the last play of the game. When backing a road pooch, that’s a situation we’d take just about every time. The Cam Newton distraction is now behind Carolina, as he's been placed on IR and the chatter about his future has been moved to the offseason. The Cats have dropped three straight games to the Falcons and they've been an easy target for quarterback Matt Ryan, but those previous results mean nothing here unless you're digging for reasons to bet Atlanta. Based on where this line opened, with the Cats as -6½ points, it appears many in this market are doing just that.

If the Dolphins’ win over the Colts didn't knock out most of your survivor pool, it was likely these Falcons that sent the rest packing. While we've been down on Atlanta all season, we backed them last week at what was in retrospect a pretty whacked out number considering the Saints could only muster nine points in a game they were expected to cover by two converted touchdowns. These Falcons had reasonable preseason expectations and the Saints were the NFC's flavor of the week. It can't be said for sure if that concoction is the reason the market has backed Atlanta so heartily this week, but other than a report Wednesday that McCaffrey had sat out practice that day (he was back in full the next day), we don't see the appeal. The Falcons have been a pooch by less than a touchdown against winning teams in two of their last five games against the Rams and Texans and they got destroyed 37-10 and 53-32. If we're to overreact to recent results, which is a stink this game has all over it, the Falcons covered against the Seahawks and then smashed the Saints. Full credit for last week's victory, the Falcons showed up like it was the goddamn Super Bowl and if they finished as strong that fateful day in February 2017 as they did against the Saints, Dan Quinn would at least have a ring on his middle finger when he waves it on his way out the door.

Do not ignore that Seattle was up 24-8 in the third quarter and totally took its foot off the gas. The Falcons did not compete that day. They snuck in the back door with a 37 yard Matt Bryant field goal with 1:37 left. You can't tell us these pros don't know the spread. Prior to that, the Dirty Birds were uncompetitive for 2½-months with their only win coming over a patchwork Eagles squad in Week 2 and even then, it was a tight 24-20 final. Even if we did like the Falcons this week, the best number is long gone. More often than not, we're going to be on the opposite side of that action. The Panthers are at home and undervalued after spotting a price similar to this to the Titans two weeks ago. While not world beaters, Tennessee has proven to be a tough out and is at least a 5-5 football team. The Dirty Birds are still the dregs, but are not priced as such. That's our cue to step in.

DETROIT +7 +103 over Dallas

1:00 PM EST. Dallas may indeed win and cover here but wagering on them to do so is not the right value play. There is no question that there is a big overreaction to Drew Stafford being on the rack, thus leaving Jeff Driskel in charge. Driskel played in last week’s loss to Detroit but he is not to blame one bit. In his debut, he threw for 269 yards and one TD in Chicago but also tossed an interception. He did not look a bit out of place and actually showed great poise and confidence in what he was doing. Obviously he isn’t Drew Stafford but don’t sell him so short either. Detroit outgained the Bears by 131 yards last week.  

Losing to the Vikings only furthers the notion that the Cowboys are no better than their schedule and it swings the pendulum back to questioning their coaching after two big wins had the team full of confidence again. Remember, as a 7-point favorite in New York against the Jets, the Cowboys lost outright and now they’re being asked to spot the same number against a better team than the one they lost to. The Cowboys also play in New England next week so color us not surprised if they come out somewhat flat and beatable again here. 

Houston +4½ -105 over BALTIMORE

1:00 PM EST. Is there a team in the NFL whose stock is higher than the Ravens? We don’t believe so, as the Ravens are on a five-game winning streak and looking better every week. Now throw in some recency bias in that Baltimore just whacked New England and you’re going to be hard-pressed to find folks willing to bet against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. As for the Texans, well, they were off last week and played at 9:30 AM EST the week prior in London so when this game kicks off, it’ll be three weeks since the market had a good look at them. In other words, they’re the forgotten team.

As we learned with the Steelers on Thursday night, recency bias is real. The Steelers had a sweet performance against the Rams the week before and were now receiving points v the dysfunctional Brownies. If you bet Pittsburgh, you bought high and if you get behind Baltimore in this one, you would be doing the same thing.

Lamar Jackson is running and throwing his way into the MVP race with Russell Wilson but let's not count out Deshaun Watson, who wins games and also covers games. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, the Texans only have two losses on the road by more than four points. That’s actually a pretty incredible number but it proves how difficult the Texans are to put away with Watson at QB. Lamar Jackson is a great runner but he’s not even close to being a great QB. Watson is a great QB. As soon as the NFL figures out a way to contain or deter Jackson from running, and they will, his “greatness” will be over. Dude cannot pass and running QB’s do not last long is this league if they can’t accurately throw the ball. In any event, this is not about Jackson v Watson. It’s a great matchup that figures to be entertaining as heck but this choice is all about selling high on the Ravens at precisely the right time.

INDIANAPOLIS -2½ -105 over Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST. It's going to really, really hard for this market to back the Colts as the chalk this week after losing the Dolphins, a team that many thought was "tanking" the season for a top draft pick. Indianapolis had everyone with a teaser, money line parlay and a survivor pool pick pulling their hair out Sunday afternoon in that 16-12 loss to the Fish and we're not going to defend it. We say all the time that it's easy to play results and in hindsight, the Colts looked ripe for the pickings. They were down to journeyman Brian Hoyer at quarterback and he was missing his best target in T.Y. Hilton. As we know, it's never that easy and 35% of survivor pool contestants on Yahoo! all penciled in the Colts for an easy win. As of this writing, there is still a cloud of suspicion as to who will suit up as the starter, but barring a major setback, Jacoby Brissett is set to be back under center. Unlike Brissett, Hilton did not practice this week, which suggests he'll again be out, but that absence will likely be overvalued this week, especially after being brushed off by so many in Week 10. That, along with the fact the Colts haven't cashed a ticket in three weeks, had Indy spotting far shorter price to the Jaguars than they should be.

The last time anyone saw Jacksonville was two weeks ago, which in NFL time is more like two months. The Jags lost that game in London to Houston, but prior to that they won two straight games, which looks great until you see those victories came against the Jets and Bengals. Jacksonville will welcome back their high profile off-season signing, quarterback Nick Foles, after the former Super Bowl MVP was injured in Week 1. In his absence, sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew made headlines, as "Minshew Mania" was born. At 4-5, it might be easy to make the case that Foles, who the Jags are paying handsomely, to get his job back after healing up from that collarbone injury, but were not so sure.

Minshew infected the market and surly his teammates as well with his cool in the clutch demeanor. Meanwhile, now the Jags will have to adjust to Foles, who is unlikely to be at full game speed with a group of players he's barely been on the field with. Minshew played in the preseason, while Foles did not, which is just one of the reasons he had such a good repoire with the offense. Asking Foles to go on the road and play well against what should be a wide awake Indy side is asking a lot. These are the same Colts that have quality wins over both Kansas City and Houston, two teams that both beat the Jags.

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