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Posted Friday, October 11 at 12:30 PM EST

NFL 2019

Week 6

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change last year and ended up going 81-57. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

Week 6

Please note that this week there are many changes that you will not see here.

We have doubts about the following because of line movements.

Washington is no longer recoomended.

Cleveland is no longer recommended.

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MINNESOTA -3½ +107 over Philadelphia

1:00 PM EST. The 3-2 Eagles are 1-1 in road games and travel to face the 3-2 Vikings that are 2-0 at home. This is an interesting matchup since the Vikings strength (rushing) is the strength of the Eagles defense. This slightly favors the home team but either side could obviously win this. The Eagles are on a two-game winning streak and won their last road game in Green Bay. The Vikings finally discovered their passing offense but it took a trip to face the Giants to find it.

This might be the toughest game to pick a side on here in Week 6 and because of that, this battle between the Vikings and Eagles is unlikely to make our board. We doubt either side gained much standing in the market, although the Vikes’ win over the Giants probably carries more weight in the market than the Eagles drubbing of the Jets. We've been critical of Kirk Cousins and his reputation as the biggest no show in the game when there are stakes on the line, but does Philadelphia fit that bill? Maybe, but we're not so sure. If this game were in prime time or against an NFC North opponent, Cousins and company would be an auto fade. However, it appears the Vikings catch the Eagles in a nice lookahead spot, as Philly will head to Dallas for a high profile appearance on Sunday Night Football next week. Gun to our head, we lean to the Vikings, but unless we see some significant movement on this game Sunday morning, it's an easy one to pass on with many other tasty options on the menu to choose from.

N.Y. JETS +7 -107 over Dallas

1:00 PM EST. What case can be made here for the Jets? They've been waffled in three of their games this season, including last week's 31-6 no show in Philadelphia. To be fair, Gang Green was forced to throw third string quarterback Luke Falk into the fire after Sam Darnold was sidelined with mono and Trevor Siemian was knocked out of New York's 23-3 Monday Night Football loss to Cleveland. The Falk era is now over, at least for now, as Darnold has been cleared to play. Even with the return of their starting pivot, the Jets carry about as much market appeal as the Dolphins and Skins, which is why this line is so curious.

In a season where oddsmakers are hanging double digit spreads on bottom feeding teams like they are going out of style, this number stands out like a sore thumb. We often discuss on our podcast that the books are not in the habit of posting bad numbers and they must consider the many wagers available to the market, including money line parlays and teasers. Those exotic bets are going to be the focus here, as it's going to be very tempting to tease the Cowboys down to -1 or include them to "pump up" every money line parlay made on Sunday. If the line itself wasn't a big red flag, this is a tough sandwich spot for Dallas. It is coming off a high profile game against the Packers last Sunday that ran unopposed in most markets as Fox's America's Game of the Week. On deck, the 'Boys have a Sunday night showdown with the Eagles at home in Big D. We'll remind you that the last time the Cowboys were in a lookahead spot like this was Week 3 at home to the Dolphins with a Sunday night date with the Saints coming in Week 4. The Cowboys slept through the first half and if they were playing anyone but the Fish, they would’ve got caught but let’s put all that aside and get into public perception.

The Jets are 0-4. Like the Dolphins and ‘Skins, they’re winless. The Jets have lost their last three games by a combined score of 84-23 and 14 of those points against New England came when the Jets were down 31-0. Take away those garbage points and that combined score would be 84-9. Like the Dolphins and ‘Skins, the Jets are getting whacked week after week after week. Meanwhile the ‘Boys crushed its first three opponents (Giants, Redskins and Dolphins) before losing to the Saints and Packers the past two weeks. Do you see a pattern here because we sure do. Dallas blows out weak teams and loses to quality ones although last week’s loss to Green Bay was hugely misleading. Dallas has a top-ranked offense and after two straight losses, it is not in a position to look ahead or take anyone lightly. One can draw one of two conclusions here, this is either the worst number oddsmakers have posted this season or the Cowboys are the sucker bet of the day and because we’re not sure, we’re going to have to see where this number goes before committing to anything. If we’re in the prediction business, it’s Dallas by 28 but we’re not so let’s wait until Sunday to make any decisions.

Washington -3½ -110 over MIAMI

1:00 PM EST. You might trust that there is a case to be made for these Dolphins to get off the bench and get a win here in Week 6, but it's important to remember that those talking points are just filler. Here's what we know, more than anything, Miami’s standing in the market benefited significantly by them not playing football last week. By comparison, the Redskins circus has been front and center for three weeks now. Miami just hasn't been bad, it's been non-competitive. If you want to give the Dolphins credit for the first half they played against a sleepy Cowboys team in Week 3, you can have it, but after Dallas woke up, that final was 31-6. When you add their other losses to the résumé (59-10 Ravens, 43-0 Patriots, 30-10 Chargers), we would argue that the winless Redskins are actually short priced here as road chalk.

We get it. It's going to be really, really hard to spot a price with the Redskins on the road in their current state, but that's the point. After another embarrassing performance last Sunday in a 33-7 home loss to the Patriots, now former head coach Jay Gruden was fired after an 0-5 start and after four losing seasons over the last five years. It's hard to blame Gruden, as this team is a total mess from the top down, but despite owner Dan Snyder, there is actually some talent on this team. It was just one year ago the Redskins started hot out of the gate until a gruesome injury to starting quarterback Alex Smith totally derailed their season. It's easy to lump the 'Skins into the same loser pool as the Dolphins or Jets, but this team actually has some players, especially on defense. In fact, if you're looking for a defense to play in your fantasy league, you could do worse than Washington this weekend. On the offensive end, the 'Skins new interim coach Bill Callahan is going back to Case Keenum at quarterback, which should bring some stability. Keenum was really good in Week 1 throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles and he went for over 200 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys in Week 2. He also did not throw an interception in either of those contests. It wasn't until Washington's 31-15 thumping by the Bears on Monday Night Football did this train go entirely off the tracks. We're going to trust the oddsmakers on this one, as this number suggests that Washington might be one of the better bets of the week. 

Cincinnati +11½ -109 over BALTIMORE

1:00 PM EST. The Ravens are 3-2, but they get the publicity of a club much higher in stature. Maybe it's the huge fantasy numbers posted by Lamar Jackson, regardless, Baltimore's price is inflated here after a road win in Pittsburgh that was much closer than it probably should have been after the Steelers were forced to throw third string quarterback Devlin Hodges into the fire. We won't waste too much more time breaking this game down because there are going to be weeks to fade Baltimore, we're just not sure if Cincinnati has what it takes to keep this one inside the number.

This game is not likely to make our board, but if you are so inclined, we suspect it is the 0-5 Bengals that are undervalued. The problem is, does that really matter if they lose by two touchdowns, which is totally on the table? It is very had to put your hard earned dollars behind a team like Cincinnati because if they get blown out of the water, you feel like an idiot. We're not different. We don't want to throw away units on a team like the Bengals, either. If we bet a pooch, regardless of price, we usually think they have a chance to win. Do we think we the Bengals can win here? Man, that’s a tough thing to believe but we know for sure that you’d be spotting inflated points with the Ravens. That cannot be recommended.

CLEVELAND +105 over Seattle

1:00 PM EST. Yes, Seattle is 4-1, but other than maybe the Packers, there hasn't been a luckier team in the NFL. The Seachickens were able to squeak by the Rams after L.A. missed a potential game winning field goal. That was Seattle's second one point victory of the season with the first coming in Week 1 against the still winless Bengals. The rest of Seattle's resume is not impressive either, as its other two wins came against one win Arizona (27-10) and the Roethlisberger-less Steelers (28-26). That's one convincing victory out of four and Seattle's lone defeat came to the Saints sans Brees (33-27). The reality is that the Seahawks are a one-man show and his name is Russell Wilson. Wilson is capable of winning games on his own and has done it again and again this season. He's putting up big numbers and is being discussed by the pundits as the best pivot in the game, but he can't keep doing it by himself. 

This week on our podcast, we talked about the opening line of this game, which had been set by Bet 365 with the Browns at -2½ point home favorites. A book like Pinnacle would never open themselves up to the liability that can come with posting a line on a game with one of the teams playing on Monday Night Football, but Bet365, they don't care. The point is, there is often an overreaction by the market to these prime time games and if the Browns had a poor showing, there was a great chance for the sportsbook to get middled. Well, the Brownies got whacked and now they are a home pooch, as that number swung three points in the other direction. After the dust settled on that 28-3 beatdown in San Francisco, the barbs have been tossed in the direction of Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, who went from preseason darling to total bust in just five weeks.

To recap: The 4-1 Seahawks are 2-0 on the road. The 2-3 Browns are 0-2 at home and coming off an absolute horrendous showing on Monday night. The Browns fell flat on their faces and nothing worked. If it came close to working, someone would lose the ball. Just when the Browns appeared to have turned the corner with their Week 4 win over the Ravens, it all came undone. The miscues and mistakes were constant and the market has reacted. Never put too much emphasis on one game. It was likely a bit of a hangover from Week 4 and it says here that Week 6 will be different. You bet Cleveland last week and cannot bet them this week? We get it but don’t get caught zig-zagging. Either lay off the game or bet the correct side. That would be the Brownies.

ARIZONA +2½ -110 over Atlanta

4:05 PM EST. We doubt the one win Cardinals gained much credibility in this market after beating the still winless Bengals 26-23 last Sunday, but that works in our favor here, as we get them underpriced at home. We're not going to spend a lot  of time pumping up the Cards because to be honest, there is not a lot to like. Their coach is an idiot, the general manager is a drunk and their quarterback is much better on your fantasy football team than he is in real life. You know what? None of that matters and two thirds of those statements are just opinion. The point is, it doesn't really matter what we think.

This line opened with the Redbirds taking back +2½, which is a dog number. Backing the Falcons to win by just a field goal is going to be an appealing play for many in this market. Atlanta, for many reasons, still has some market credibility. Now, readers of this space know that we've been all over the Falcons since the start of the season and pegged them to go under their season win total, but what the market still sees is a team that can score points in bunches. It doesn't matter if much of that offense is coming in garbage time. At 1-4, we don't think the Falcons should be favored on the road against anybody and that includes these Red Birds. This will also be the first game back in Arizona since the death of Cardinals owner Bill Bidwell, which should provide a little extra motivation for the home side, but this short price suggests the Red Birds won't need it.

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