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Posted Friday, October 4 at 2:15 PM EST

NFL 2019

Week 5

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change last year and ended up going 81-57. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

Week 5

Baltimore -3½ +100 over PITTSBURGH 

1:00 PM EST. The 2-2 Ravens were just manhandled by the visiting Browns in a big upset. The 1-3 Steelers easily dispatched the visiting Bengals. This is a tougher one to call since the Ravens have cooled significantly since thrashing the Dolphins in Week 1. We were later to discover that wasn't as hard as it seemed. Now that these two bandwagons are going in slightly different directions, it’s time to jump on the Ravens when everyone is jumping off and jump off the Steelers when most are jumping back on.

You're going to have to dig deep into the archives to find the last time the Ravens were favored in Pittsburgh by more than a FG and considering last week's results and the heated rivalry and history between these two, those 3½-points are going to look mighty appealing, especially considering the Steelers are at home. We urge you to back off. You see, the winners of those high profile games are often overvalued the next time out and these Steelers fit the bill. What would this line have been if these two teams played a week ago before the Ravens got waffled by the Browns and the Steelers were still winless?

There's no sugarcoating the beatdown in Baltimore the "old" Browns took from the current incarnation, so we're just going to move on. We trust the Ravens lost much of their market credibility they had built over the first three weeks, as the Brownies, who have been this year’s biggest disappointment, ran all over them just as the Browns’ bandwagon was emptying. The market can be fickle and the Ravens did some damage last week by blowing up the future financial dreams of anyone that teased down the 6½ point spread, included betting them in a money line parlay or even selected them for Survivor. Here's a hot tip, never, ever, pick a 6½-point favorite in your Survivor pool. They are usually the liveliest dogs on the board and often win outright.

We take big notice when oddsmakers slap that "hook" on a key number. The market will often look at that as a "bad" number and feel they are getting an edge. We couldn't disagree more. -3½ is a favorite number and this season, they have been some of the best bets. If you're looking for short-priced favorites, a number like this is a great place to start.

CAROLINA -3½ -103 over Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST. The Panthers are now 2-0 without the services of quarterback Cam Newton, but his replacement, Kyle Allen, isn't getting the same accolades as other first time starters like Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray and of course Gardner Minshew, but he's no doubt made the Panthers better. It's not like Allen has to do it all himself either, as Carolina features the best running back in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey is tops in the league with 411 rush yards and 629 yards from scrimmage. That second mark is the most by a player in team history through four games and the six most league wide since 2000. "Caff" also leads all running backs with 25 receptions. The reality is, all Allen has to do is feed his running back the ball by any means possible. Allen has pulled his weight too and is just the second quarterback (Carson Wentz is the other) to go 3-0 to start a career and all of those wins came on the road. With the offense sustaining drives under Allen, the Panthers defense has been better the last two weeks as well by racking up 14 sacks and when defending the pass this season. This unit has held the opposition to just 156.8 net passing yards per game.

Minshew mania hit the Mile High City last week, as the Jaguars completed an improbable comeback after going down 17-3 with about four minutes to go in the second quarter. We're not sure if the still winless Broncos took their foot off the gas, or maybe they got a little too high on that sweet mountain air, but either way, the Jaguars outscored them 20-7 in the second half. Minshew continues to get all the press, including the AFC Offensive Rookie of the Month award, but it was running back Leonard Fournette, who gashed the Broncos defense for 225 yards. It was an impressive win to be sure, but there were some big red flags as well. The Jags offensive line was abused by the Broncos and gave up five sacks. If Minshew is hit like that again this week, he'll be picking his famous mustache off the turf. The Jags stock is on the rise after two straight wins and they are going to look like a solid play taking back a price here again this week, but consider this: Denver was 3½ over the Jags last week and had them by the throat. Should the Panthers be the exact same price at home as the 0-4 Broncs? We think not, thus that’s where we find the value here. Swallow the points.

CHICAGO -5 -105 over Oakland

1:00 PM EST. London, England. In this week’s podcast, we mentioned that we don’t like to get involved with games in London because of all the blowouts that have occurred over the years. Typically speaking, one team just never shows up but doesn’t that provide us with a possible massive edge if we can figure out which team is more likely to show up prepared and ready to go? Of course it does so let’s try that angle and see where it leads.

One team is coached by Jon Gruden, the enthusiastic, ex-coach, turned-Monday Night broadcaster turned coach again, with the menacing stare, that hasn’t exactly controlled his players. For instance, Antonio Brown came in as a loose cannon and left a looser cannon that didn’t last eight days at Camp Belichick. Vontaze Burfict was next, as he’s been suspended for the remainder of the season as the result of not just one hit but a series of violent hits that he’s been warned about over and over again. That wouldn’t happen at Camp Belichick either because it’s his rules or the highway. Anyway, the point is that it’s not just those two players that Camp Gruden couldn’t keep under wraps. The entire preseason was one filled with dysfunction and now this group of misfits and malcontents are flying to another country, far away from their wives, girlfriends and constant scrutiny of the NFL media. It’s also worth noting that the Raiders played in Indianapolis last week and emerged victorious because the Colts pulled a no-show, just as we suggested they might. Oakland’s stock is higher this week than it would’ve been if, let’s say they lost to the Colts by double digits. Oakland is weak team that is a satisfying 2-2.

By contrast, the Bears are coached by no-nonsense boss, Matt Nagy. Nagy comes from the Andy Reid tree. He became an assistant coach with the Eagles in 2009, spending five seasons in various offensive positions under Reid. In 2013, when Reid joined the Chiefs, Nagy followed him to become the quarterbacks coach, a role he served until he was promoted to offensive coordinator in 2016. Nagy was named the Bears' head coach in 2018, leading the team to their first NFC North championship and playoff appearance since 2010 in his first year. The Bears are disciplined and they adhere to Nagy’s strict rules.

Next up is the fact that the Bears lost their starting QB last week. What that means is Chase Daniel will play and that has the Bears undervalued. Frankly, Daniel might be better. Chase Daniel stepped in during Week 4 and completed 22 of 30 passes for 195 yards and one TD in the win over the Vikings. He had no turnovers. The Raiders are bottom-five in most passing categories, so the timing is good. There is a reason that Chase Daniel is one of, if not the highest paid backup QB in the game. Furthermore, what happens when a key player goes down is that the team rallies hard and prepares harder in support of the guy that is being asked to step in. We’ve seen it with many teams this year, including Carolina, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Jacksonville to name a few.

In summarizing, we’re looking to get an edge and figure out which team is more likely to be prepared and or focused/ as the two teams travel overseas. By a wide margin, we’re suggesting that the Bears will be that squad. Although this game is on a neutral field, it is worth noting that Oakland was getting +6½ at Indy last Sunday and now they’re getting less against the Bears? Chicago offers up all the value here.

CINCINNATI -3½ +101 over Arizona

1:00 PM EST. While both of these teams were battered, bruised and left licking their wounds after a rough Week 4,  it was the Bengals that melted down so spectacularly in front of a national audience. We are in the business of targeting and exploiting over and under-reactions, which is why this game is so interesting. Even before a ball was snapped on Monday Night Football, oddsmakers posted a number on this Bengals/Cardinals matchup. We discussed how unusual that was on our podcast and what would happen to that line if Cinci came out with a stinker. The market then saw Cincinnati do what it always seems to do in a prime time position and that was pulling a no show. As we suggested, the Bengals went from a 4½-point favorite to spotting a field goal with juice by Tuesday morning after Monday’s putrid showing.

The Bengals spirited effort in a one-point Week 1 loss up in Seattle seems so long ago after getting whacked 41-17 by the 49ers, beat by the Bills 21-17 and finally suffering last Monday's 27-3 debacle in the Steel City, but through one month of the season, that's a pretty solid résumé of losses to some "good" teams. Seattle is 3-1. The Niners are 3-0 and Buffalo is 3-1. Throw in the Steelers at 1-3 and the combined record of the Bengals opposition is still an impressive 10-5. Cincinnati takes a big step down in competition here, which should serve it well, as should this game being played out of the limelight. When the stakes are the lowest, Andy Dalton and his Bengals are at their best.

The Cardinals are winless as well, but their most recent defeat was both expected and mostly hidden in the sea on Sunday football action. We bet the Redbirds in that game and have had action on them in past weeks as well, so we've watched more Cardinals football than most folks would force upon themselves. We're here to tell you that you can add Kliff Kingsbury to the idiots coaching list. It's not that we didn't already know this, as Klingsbury was a moron at the college level as well, but just a month in, his Cardinals are a tough bet. Even if the players on the field all perform to the best of their abilities, their coach has no idea what's going on. He doesn't care about defense, making adjustments or anything else that doesn't involve going for it all downfield. Defensively, the Cards are giving up 271 pass yards a game with 10 majors scored against them, which is a solid matchup for a Bengals side that sports the third ranked pass offense in the league. To combat their struggles in the secondary, the Cardinals cut veteran safety D.J. Swearinger, who was supposed to be a defensive leader this season. His replacement will be rookie Deionte Thompson. How that move will sit with that unit should be interesting, but we're not sure throwing a rookie right into the fire is the best way to combat that weakness. How’s this for a tidbit: The Red Birds have not played with a lead yet in 2019. The market perception is that both of these teams are bottom feeders, but it is the Cardinals that are getting a long look here by process of elimination, meaning that the Bengals looked so bad on Monday night that the market can’t wait to bet against them taking back points. We on the other hand are thrilled to get the short priced Bengals in a prime bounce-back spot. 

NEW ORLEANS -3½ +102 over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM EST. The Saints won but did not impress in their 12-10 Sunday night victory over the Cowboys. When you don't score a touchdown, you are not supposed to win. We're not going to sugarcoat the Bree-less Saint offense. However, we will say that even before the future Hall-of-Famer's injury, this team had been moving towards a focus on running the ball and playing solid defense. Those are the two biggest reasons the Saints have been able to go 2-0 without their leader. Spotting points with the sputtering Saints offense to a Tampa team that put up 54 points on the mighty Rams doesn’t appear to be an appealing proposition but we suspect that's precisely what oddsmakers were thinking.

The Buccaneers did some real damage in survivor pools across the football landscape with nearly 30% of Yahoo! pigskin pickers siding with the hometown Rams as 9-point chalk. When you put up 50 plus points as the Bucs did last Sunday, you are going to turn some heads. This market loves high scoring sides and they've targeted the Bucs after that offensive outburst. This line opened with Tampa taking back five points but has been bet down significantly. Beating the closing line is a popular practice by some in the market, but we'd caution you from doing the same. Perhaps oddsmakers put up a bad number, but we suspect they knew exactly what they were doing and anticipated an overreaction on the Bucs big win. The days of the books managing "50/50" action and taking home the vig are over. Oddsmakers wanted action on Tampa and they got it in spades. That position makes the Bucs a great "sell high" candidate. Don't forget that this is the same team that was embarrassed 31-17 at home to the 49ers in Week 1 and blew a double digit lead at home to a rookie quarterback in a 32-31 loss to the Giants in Week 3. The Bucs are the kind of team that will over-perform when it's least expected to and then drop the ball when the market jumps on their bandwagon. We were on the Bucs last Sunday and we'll happily fade them here.

N.Y. Jets +13½ -103 over PHILADELPHIA

1:00 PM EST. We're not going to spend a lot of time on this game as we suspect there is very little we could say that would entice anyone to back the Jets here and we don't blame them. However, we don't care who's wearing what shade of green, as we're in the "value" business. The last time anyone saw New York's AFC side, it was getting shellacked on Monday Night Football by the Browns. The Jets were on a much needed bye in Week 4 after starting the season 0-3 and they'll likely be without starting quarterback Sam Darnold, who has mono. Darnold did return to practice this week, which should give his team some kind of boost but he has not been cleared for contact, although, Jets coach Adam Gase did not rule out his playing against the Eagles. Trust us, Luke Falk is getting the start and this line says so.

The Eagles were left for dead after a disastrous Sunday night in Atlanta in Week 3 but rebounded with a big primetime win in Green Bay. The market watched the Eagles run roughshod on the Pack and we suspect their stock is on the rise as well. With "bad" teams like the Dolphins, Redskins and the Jets getting blown out of the water every week, oddsmakers have had to inflate their lines. They must also protect against parlays and teasers. We suspect that the Eagles will be in nearly every 7-point teaser played this weekend. Although we don't see it often, a 13½ line is just like a 6½ or a 2½, it's a dog number, as the market is able to cash a ticket without crossing a "key" number like 3, 7, 10 or 14. We doubt the market will blink at this number, which means the books will need the Jets to cover. Guess which side we'd rather be on?

Minnesota -5½ -104 over N.Y. GIANTS

1:00 PM EST. ♪Kirk Cousins is sorry. So sorry that he was such a fool. He did not know that football could be so cruel. Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, yes. He told us that mistakes are part of being young, but that doesn't right the wrong that has been done. Kirk's sorry. So sorry. Adam, please accept his apology. But your QB is blind. Too blind to see you♪

The Cousins era in Minnesota couldn’t get sadder if Brenda Lee sung it herself. On his weekly radio show, Cousins apologized to Adam Theilen because, "There's too many opportunities where we could have hit him on Sunday”. Cousins' use of the collective "we" is cute because we're pretty sure it is Cousins that was paid $84-million in guaranteed money to "hit" Theilen downfield. Cousins has become a punching bag and a punch line around this league after failing to show up when it matters most and we suspect that is a big reason why he and the Vikings are going to be a tough bet in Week 5. Who wants to spot points with a team that couldn't put up a touchdown until the 2:58 mark of the fourth quarter last Sunday against the Bears. The Vikes were heavily bet in that game and that line dropped to nearly a pick 'em after the Bears opened at a field goal favorite. We are always mindful of which teams the market will "zig-zag" on week-to-week and Minnesota fits the bill.

The Giants are 2-0 under rookie quarterback Daniel Jones, who might have the best two game start in the team's history. "Danny Dimes" is the first Giants pivot to win his first two starts since Danny Kanell in 1997. Jones is the first rookie to do it for the franchise since Phil Simms in 1979. To give some perspective about how significant that feat is league wide, since the merger in 1970, only 12 quarterbacks selected in the first two rounds have won their first two starts in their rookie year. It all sounds impressive to be sure, but that first victory, a comeback win in Tampa, was a gift from the Buccaneers kicking game, as it missed three kicks for a total of five points including a "chip shot" for the game winner. Last week, Jones and company easily disposed of the Redskins 24-3, but forgive us for putting little stock in a win over a team that looks like it's going to give the Dolphins a run for the most embarrassing club in the NFL. They say if you can make it in New York, you can make it anywhere and because of the bright spotlight, Jones is getting far more press than most would in his position. His stock and therefore the Giants stock is inflated here in Week 5. We also have a huge potential lookahead spot, as the Giants will head to Foxboro and a date with the Patriots next Thursday night. We've been targeting teams with upcoming prime time games, as they have been an advantageous position so far this season. The Giants are no different. This is a prime spot for the Vikings to bounce back and expose the G-Men for being the below average team they’re supposed to be, especially with their star running back on the rack.

Buffalo @ TENNESSEE

1:00 PM EST. Josh Allen suffered a concussion last week and his status is questionable at best for this matchup. Since the Bills have a bye in Week 6, it makes a lot of sense to let Allen rest for two weeks and then take advantage of a soft spot in the schedule for three games. This game was off the board at the time of this writing, thus, we’ll wait until Sunday to post our recommendation or our wager.

WASHINGTON +15½ over New England

1:00 PM EST. What happens when the market gets burned once? They usually shrug it off and continue. What happens when the market gets burned twice in the same manner? They don’t shrug it off and vow to never get burned in that same manner again. This is truly a case of “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me”.

It was three weeks ago that the Patriots were a 18-point road favorite in Miami. At that time, it was almost unheard of to see an NFL team favored in that range on the road. The Pats would then go out and destroy the Fish, 43-0 and cover easily. Last week, the Chargers, a team with far less market credibility than New England, were also a big road favorite in Miami (-15) and like New England, the Bolts rolled over the Dolphins to make those two huge road favorites 2-0 against the spread. Last week’s Bolts cover was especially damaging to the market, as that line dropped all week, which indicates a boatload of money was pouring in on the Dolphins. Two big road favorites and two easy covers means not many are going anywhere near the Redskins this week. That’s our cue to move in.

Washington isn’t Miami. Washington was a 5-point home pooch to the Bears two weeks ago and now they’re +15½ against the Pats, also at home? Forget the results because the Redskins have been both sloppy and unlucky and that combination will cause any team to get whacked.

Our goal is to identify flaws in the market and not worry about the X’s and O’s. Washington actually outgained Chicago two weeks ago by 58 yards and while one cannot put a lot of emphasis on that because they were down 28 points at the half and gained garbage yards afterward, the ‘Skins still turned the ball over 5 times and lost by just 16. We cannot overstate how many people were on the Dolphins last week taking back a better than two TD number against the Chargers and lost. This is now the third time in the last four weeks that a road team is favored by more than two converted TD’s with the market getting burned the first two times. Washington’s loss last week to the Giants and its loss two weeks ago to Chicago in prime time has this market evaluating the Skins and putting them in the same price range as the Dolphins. You did not see us on Miami v New England or Miami v the Chargers because it was not a market overreaction. In fact, we took the Bolts last week but now it’s time to take advantage of a truly inflated underdog that nobody wants a part of.

Denver +6½ -110 over L.A. CHARGERS

4:05 PM EST. Is this rock bottom for the Broncos? At 0-4, it appears it's time to put a wrap on 2019 and look to 2020, but these players have a ton of pride and unlike the Dolphins, the Broncs haven't been uncompetitive. Denver could just as easily be 3-1 as it is 0-4 after playing the Bears, Packers and Jaguars tough. A phantom penalty that led to Chicago's game-winning field goal in Week 2 got the ball rolling downhill. The Broncos had a quality showing in Green Bay in Week 3, but could not overcome the turnovers and last week, Denver took a double digit lead into the half at home against the Jaguars and gave it all back before again allowing a last second field goal to take home the loss. Of all the winless teams left in this league, the Broncos have been the most "unlucky". This team couldn't buy a bounce if you let it, but over time, turnovers and other luck driven results usually even out. We’re pretty sure that the Broncos will leave nothing on the table and actually dig down even deeper to try and get a first win for their rookie and well-liked coach, Vic Fangio.

The Chargers slept walked through their win over the Dolphins with a patchwork lineup in what was a glorified bye week. It's funny, because when the news came out last Sunday that L.A. would be sitting many of its starters, the market pounded the Dolphins. There were so many talking points against the Chargers despite the huge double digit spread, including the tidbit that they hadn't won in eight regular-season trips to South Beach. The market didn't trust a team like the Chargers spotting such a big price on the road and they paid for it. Now, in a classic zig-zag situation, we suspect they'll pounce on what looks like a very beatable number. We love +6½ point pooches and we target them weekly. When this line opened, it was perfect, as a well known pick seller couldn't wait to post his "free" play for the week and on Monday, he was all over the Chargers at -6½. Forgive us for putting little stock into that win and cover in Miami. Sure we cashed a ticket, but that game didn't tell anybody anything about where this Chargers team really is. Malcontent and former hold out Melvin Gordon is back in the fold, sans a big money deal, and now the Chargers will be forced to give him touches when their running game has been their strongest asset this season. It wasn't long ago that the Bolts were 1-2 and circling the drain. Last week's results aside, this is not the kind of team you want to be spotting a price with.

Not only do we love +6½ point dogs, but we also love that the Chargers are in a prime lookahead spot with the Steelers coming to town for Sunday Night Football in Week 6. Fading teams in this position this season has also been profitable. Just look at the Chiefs, Rams and Colts struggles last Sunday. All three are featured in high profile prime time games here in Week 5. We’ll see how it all plays out but in terms of value and overpriced chalk, this one just night turn out to be one of the better wagers on the board. We’ll consider a money line wager on Sunday. Invest.

DALLAS -3½-103 over Green Bay

4:25 PM EST. We've read that the Cowboys were exposed as frauds after a no show on Sunday Night Football in New Orleans, but we're not ready to sell this team off quite yet. We believe that teams coming off less than stellar primetime performances are often undervalued the next time out and while both the 'Boys and the Packers were downed in front of the football world, that Sunday nighter is much fresher in the minds of the market. That Dallas couldn't muster much against a Saints team that was missing Drew Brees also looks much worse on paper than the Packers' failure against the Eagles.

Prior to last Thursday night, the Packers had been the best bet in the NFL with a 3-0 record in the standings and against the spread and if not for some suspect play calling from first year head coach Matt LaFleur near the goal line, the Packers would likely be 4-0 against the spread. However, lost in all tomfoolery was the fact that it was actually the Packers who were exposed under the bright lights. Green Bay's suspect run defense was a fatal flaw. The Packers were gashed for 176 yards on the ground and there was nothing they could do about it. In Week 3 against the still winless Broncos, the Pack was gutted for 149 rush yards and in Week 2 against the Vikings, they were trampled for 198. That's three straight games of the Green Bay defense getting abused and those hits add up. When you can't stop the run, you can't get off the field, which makes for a long day at the office. The Packers are going to have some appeal here as a pooch taking back 3½ points, but we'll stress again that this is a "favorite" number when it's posted by the books. It encourages the market to bet the pooch because of the "hook" on a key number like three. In reality, favorites in this range cash at a high clip and the half point rarely comes into play. Also working against the Packers in this game is the fact they'll be back in the spotlight in Week 6 with a home date on Monday Night Football against the Lions. So far this season, many teams have dropped the ball with a high profile primetime game on the horizon. Look no further than the Rams last Sunday, who fell to Tampa with a TNF matchup in Seattle on deck. Even though they are playing America's team, this is the perfect sandwich spot between two nationally televised primetime games to catch the Packers napping. It also doesn’t hurt that Zeke is up next to gash this Pack run defense.

HOUSTON -5 over Atlanta

1:00 PM EST. The best thing about this game is that the Texans looked awful last week in a low scoring loss at home to the Panthers. It almost makes people forget about Atlanta’s loss to Tennessee but at the end of the day, Atlanta, for whatever reason, still has market appeal and we’ll continue to try and take advantage of that.

Atlanta’s new offense under OC Dirk Koetter becomes more like the Buccaneers each week. The passing effort has been productive in yardage though it revolves around very few players. The rushing effort is all but non-existent with no signs of improvement. Atlanta has one win this year, an unimpressive prime time victory over the depleted Eagles. Philadelphia was so banged up that week that they skipped practice the following Wednesday because they didn’t have enough healthy bodies available. Incidentally, the Dirty Birds had to hang on for dear life to edge the Eagles, 24-20. Atlanta has been blown out twice in four games, once by the Vikes and last week against the Titans. One could surmise that their stock is low and now would be the time to buy, but Houston’s stock is low too, which provides us with this opportunity to fade the Dirty Birds once again.

The Texans have suffered through a challenging schedule facing the defenses of the Saints, Jaguars, Chargers and Panthers. That should start to turn around now that their next opponents are Atlanta, @KC, @Indy and Oakland. Deshaun Watson turned in great performances in two of Houston’ four games. One was against New Orleans and the other was against the Chargers. That said, let’s get to the real meat behind this choice and make it a very good situational bet that few are aware of.

Deshaun Watson grew up in Atlanta and was always hanging around the Falcons facility. The summer before Watson’s freshman year at Gainesville High School in Georgia, he spent his August with the Falcons at their practice facility in Flowery Branch -- just 10 minutes from his home. He picked up balls during practice, took care of the equipment and folded towels, among other things. Watson got the job through the Boys & Girls Club in Gainesville and was one of the few high school students chosen to take part in the program that was started by Falcons owner Arthur Blank. Along with helping during training camp, the ball boys were allowed to be on the sideline and in the locker room on game days. “We got the whole NFL experience,” Watson said. Watson did such a good job, he was asked back by the Falcons each year that he was in high school. Suddenly, the 14-year-old who was nervous about throwing to NFL receivers was putting together an excellent high school career, and by the time he was a sophomore, he had committed to Clemson. Spending all that time around the team and players, Watson said, “taught me how to really work.”

We could go on about Watson and his ties to Atlanta but the point is that this is a highly emotional game for him. He still has strong ties to many people in the Falcons organization and wants to thrive against them here to showcase what he’s become. Watson is a quiet, humble player and perhaps that’s why the Texans don’t get the press they deserve or why Watson isn’t really considered among the elite. In any case, when a talented QB and team is jacked up to play the Falcons and that talented team has a stock that’s dropping, you can pencil us in and we make no exception here. Deshaun Watson wants this one badly and he’ll be facing a reeling defense that made Marcus Mariota look like a star, while failing to sack him. Watson figures to see little pressure from a hapless front seven. HOOAH!

KANSAS CITY -10½ over Indianapolis

8:20 PM EST. The 4-0 Chiefs share the AFC lead with the Patriots and their meeting seems fated. The 2-2 Colts were just upset by the visiting Raiders and now travel to face the top offense in the NFL. This game seemed much tastier when the schedule makers were thinking Mahomes vs. Luck and if it means anything, the Chiefs won 31-13 when the Colts visited in the Divisional Round of the 2018 playoffs. It was a cold and windy day. This day will not be cold and windy. In fact, it looks like it’s going to be a perfect day for football. The forecast is 66° or 18C with a light breeze of 8 MPH.

Stock up, stock down is a strategy we employ often but it’s not the only criteria we use. There are several protocols we go through before zeroing in on a choice. We would’ve preferred if the Colts blew out the Raiders last week because we’d probably be spotting a point less here but we do not care.

We have access to the data just like everyone else and the Chiefs were the second most wagered on team last week as a 6½-point choice in Detroit. If you teased the Chiefs, you escaped by the hairs on your chinny-chin-chin but if you spotted the points, there was no escape. There were also two 14-point swings in that contest that both went the Chiefs way, otherwise Detroit would’ve won comfortably. The point is that some may be reluctant to spot -10½ or -11 with the Chiefs after spotting -6½ last week and ripping up their tickets but not us. We’re thrilled to be spotting these points.

The Lions held Patrick Mahomes to no touchdowns for a first this season and he only threw for 315 yards. That was his first time for 2019 when he failed to produce at least 370 passing yards and three touchdowns. There’s not a lot of tears about it but make no mistake that Mahomes had an off week by his standards. You really think he’s going to be off his game two weeks in a row in a prime time spot? Perhaps the Chiefs were looking ahead to this game? Perhaps they didn’t take the NFC Lions seriously. This week, the Chiefs will take this game very seriously.

As for the Colts, well, unlike the Chiefs, their QB is not used to being featured in a prime time game. We really have to question if this moment is going to unnerve Jacoby Brissett or if it’s just a little too big for him. And even if it’s not, the Colts may hang with or go punch for punch early on but expect Kansas City to pull away because they’re not going to be stopped here. Also note that Pinnacle had K.C. at -11 when almost every other joint had them at 10½ during the week. That’s another sign we pay attention to.  

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