Pinnacle -14½- 104 B365 -15 -110 SportsInteraction -15½ -110 5DIMES -15½ -110 888Sport -15 -110

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

L.A. Chargers -14½ -104 over MIAMI

1:00 PM EST. Our first inclination here was obviously to take the points. However, we also have to try and put on the suit of an oddsmaker and try and figure out if they put up a price so big that it would almost be impossible for anyone to back the favorite. It's not often that you see a 1-2 team open as one of the biggest road favorites in NFL history, but that's exactly what's happening here. To put that in perspective, this will mark just the fifth time since 1980 that a road team has been favored by 17 or more points, and two of those instances have happened with this year's Dolphins (besides this game, it also happened in Week 2 when the Patriots closed as an 18-point road favorite).

On top of that, the Chargers aren’t some monster public team that blows out teams. This isn’t the Chiefs, Cowboys or Patriots we’re talking about, no, this is a visiting team whose stock is low after losing at home last week to Houston and it’s also a team known for its many clunker performances over the years. Every year the Chargers lose games that they’re not supposed to. The point is, who the f**k in their right mind is going to spot 16 points with the Chargers on the road? Yeah, the Dolphins got smoked again last week and didn’t cover but they put up a stubborn first-half performance that will inspire the market into not spotting this type of lumber against them this week, especially at home and especially against the Bolts.

Readers of this space know that spotting this type of weight on the road in a pro game is not in our wheelhouse but is it in anyone’s? We don’t think it is. Hell, if New England was -18 in Miami, how can the Chargers be priced in the same range? NFL teams do not get blown out every week. NFL teams and players have pride and egos and to the Dolphins, this has to be embarrassing to be offered points like this in your own barn. Frankly, we cannot think of one reason to bet the Chargers to beat the number here but at the same time, we have to trust that almost everyone is thinking the same thing. The number suggests to us that the oddsmakers are expecting another bloodbath here because we cannot imagine anyone picking the Chargers to cover this price. We’re almost sure that the books are going to need the Chargers to cover here and we prefer to be on the same side as they are.

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