Pinnacle -7 -109 BET365 -7 -120 SportsInteraction -7½ +102 5DIMES -7½ +100 888Sport  -7½ +101

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

GREEN BAY -7 -109 over Denver

1:00 PM EST. The challenge here is trying to figure out if one or both of these teams have gained or lost market credibility heading into Week 3. We know Denver lost a lot of its appeal when the Raiders ruined them on Monday Night Football in Week 1. The Broncs, however, would get much of it back after a stubborn performance in Week 2 against the Bears. Denver would lose last week to fall to 0-2 but they covered and they also took a lead with 30 seconds left in the game. The entire football world knows what happened next. One of the worst calls in history (roughing the passer) at such a crucial time allowed the Bears to get into FG range with one second left on the clock and Chicago’s kicker nailed it. To the millions that bet the Bears, it mattered not, as most spotted -2½ and couldn’t have cared less about the field goal make or miss. The point is, Denver burned a lot of people with a stubborn performance and we’re not sure that bettors are anxious to be spotting more than a converted TD with the Packers right now.

Green Bay gained very little credibility in their opening night win over the Bears simply because they couldn’t move five yards and ended up scoring just 10 points. It looked like the Packers stock was going to soar last week after they jumped out to a 21-0 lead over Minnesota early but from that point on, Green Bay’s stock continued to drop. The Packers would not score again for the remainder of the game but still ended up winning 21-16. It was nothing but pure luck that got Green Bay’s backers to the cashier’s window and now the Pack are being asked to spot twice as many points this week then they did last week. We are suggesting that despite being 2-0, the Packers are a fortunate 2-0 and the market knows it. That sets this one up nicely to play the chalk.

For one, -7½ is one of our favorite chalk prices. When the books hang a -7½, we always look hard at the favorite first because they want you to take the hook and the dog. We’re always digging for reasons the books offer that significant half point up on such a key number to entice bettors into taking that proverbial carrot. We’re not 100% why but consider that even good defenses play poorly when they tire, and being worn out renders bad ones hopeless. Always be aware of whether the schedule helps or hinders freshness, the mental and physical toll of each game and the running "pitch count." The Broncos are coming off a devastating loss where the D played their hearts out. In Week 1, that same D was being run out there so often because the offense can’t move forward. The results for the Broncs here could really be gruesome if they haven’t mentally recovered from being robbed by the Locker Room Boys or if their defense is worn out and sick of bailing out the offense time and time again. If both those narratives are working against the Broncs, this just might be the blowout of the day against anyone not named Miami.

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