Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST
4:25 PM EST. Both teams are coming off high profile games and those are the games that get the biggest over and under-reactions from week to week so let’s focus in on that.
The Steelers were public enemy #1 last week when the market heavily faded them in their home game with their biggest nemesis, the team that they could not beat, the New England Patriots. That game was just one of two games featured on the late Sunday afternoon slate and it was the most viewed game of the weekend according to the ratings. The Steelers gave up a quick strike TD to the Patriots early in the first but from that point forward until late in the fourth quarter, the Steelers would only allow the Pats to score three more points in a 17-10 victory. That stingy performance and massive win erased what stink the Steelers left in the market the previous three weeks.
The very next day on Monday Night Football, the market was hammering the Saints all day long in their matchup with the reeling Panthers. For 3½ hours, folks that had a ticket on the Saints spotting 6½-points were frustrated all night long, as the Saints offense couldn’t break through. Drive after drive after drive after drive, it was punt, punt, punt, punt and punt. The frustration was capped off in the final seconds when it appeared that the Saints were going in for the cover but Tommylee Lewis fumbled out of the back of the end zone to end any hope of said cover. An ugly, low scoring game has a lasting effect on a market that reacts strongly to what it just witnessed, which sets up this play perfectly.
Pittsburgh was heavily faded last week and impressed. The Saints were heavily backed last week and didn’t impress. We now have not one, but two “zig-zags” in the same game and we couldn’t be more excited about it. We cannot stress enough how focused and intent the Steelers were in its quest to get a proverbial monkey off their back. The Steelers were being told all week leading up their game against the Patriots that they are not good enough to beat the Patriots. They had an “us against the world” attitude and played their hearts out for 60 minutes. That was a euphoric moment for the Steelers but if you watched that game, than you’re aware that the Patriots uncharacteristically shot themselves in the foot time and time again with mental errors. That’s a story for another time but the point is that the Steelers scored just 17 points and were not as impressive as the win suggests. Even though this week is crucial for the Steelers quest to make the playoffs, anything after beating the Patriots is anti-climactic for a team that is not humble, that doesn’t quietly go about their business and that has proven all season that they cannot be trusted. The 8-5-1 Steelers are technically tied with a game in hand, with the Ravens for top spot in the AFC North. The 12-2 Saints are 5-1 at home and currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC. If they win just one more game, they lock up home field in the playoffs. This is that game and we're trusting that the price is short.
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NEW ORLEANS -6 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)