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Posted Friday, October 12 at 2:30 PM EST.

NFL 2018

This year we’re changing it up a little bit from what regular readers are used to. We have always posted our NFL writeups and selections on Friday and that will not change.

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

NFL PICKS WEEK 7

Tennessee Titans vs L.A. Chargers
9:30 AM EST. It's really too bad that another London game has gotten in the way of what would have been a tremendous situational wager. Instead, we must pass, as we refuse to get involved with the many unknown variables that come along when the NFL takes its dog and pony show across the pond.

The Chargers are going to get a long look here from the market after they put up nearly 40 points against a Browns defense that had been highly regarded coming into that game last Sunday. With Los Angeles being an eight hour time difference and after seeing how the Raiders looked after making the trip late in the week, the Chargers decided to stay in Cleveland after the win. That messed up travel schedule is just one of the many reasons that we refuse to get mixed up in these overseas shenanigans. The Chargers have been to London once before, but that was way back in 2008. Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates are the only players that are still on the team from that trip. If you're curious, San Diego fell to New Orleans 37-32.

Meanwhile, this is the Titans first trip to London, but not the first international expedition for head coach Mike Vrabel, as he was a coach with the Texans when they played Oakland in Mexico City in 2016. However, that game did not take place in a distant time zone, although playing at an extreme altitude creates its own set of challenges. On the field, the Titans got shutout at home against Baltimore last Sunday and have seen their stock plummet after following up their Week 5 loss at Buffalo with another poor performance. Those wins Tennessee has over the Super Bowl champion Eagles and AFC South champion Jaguars have long been forgotten. Had this game been scheduled in the USA, The Titans would’ve absolutely made our board, as the Chargers have entered the “Super Bowl” contender conversation after last week’s blowout over Cleveland. It’s a classic case of jumping off a team when the market jumps on but again, we refuse to get involved in these overseas games. Recommendation: Tennessee +6½

 

CHICAGO +131 over New England
1:00 PM EST. The Patriots are coming off one of the most memorable NFL regular season games in quite some time and its scope was magnified by the fact it was on Sunday Night Football, which week-to-week is one of the highest rated shows in the nation. Even on an evening that featured the ALCS game between the Red Sox and Astros, as well as a 60 Minutes interview with Donald Trump, the NFL proved it was still king. The Pats and Chiefs were up 18% in viewers over the Week 5 showdown with Houston and Dallas and was easily the most-watched program last Sunday night.

The emotional and adrenaline dump that comes with winning a high scoring back-and-forth prime time game like that cannot be overstated. Neither can the slobbering that comes from the media as soon as the Patriots and Tom Brady are back on the scene. Even during Monday's Packers/49ers game, much of the talk was about Brady's greatness. That Sunday Night win over the Chiefs has resonated loudly but it wasn't that long ago that the Patriots were left for dead after back-to-back losses to the Jaguars and Lions. Now, after three straight wins, the Pats are supposedly back. However, we are not buying that narrative and neither should you. The time to buy on New England was after Week 3, not now when you are going to pay extra to do so.

As news began to trickle out Sunday morning that Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill would be limited against the Bears, the market pounced on what looked like an easy target. When Tannehill was finally ruled out and backup Brock Osweiler was named the starter, that line had moved significantly with the Fish closing as a seven-point pooch. If you watched the Fox pregame show, their panel picked the Bears as the lock of the day. To them, iit was as if Osweiler had never thrown a pass in his life. Of course, you know what happened next, as the Bears played most of the afternoon as if they spent their Saturday night living it up in South Beach. After the dust settled on an ugly 31-28 loss, the Bears burned everybody that had backed them to not only cover the inflated spread, but teasers, money line parlays and even survivor pools all went up in smoke. The Bears highly touted defense is also taking its lumps after getting "Osweilered", but do not let one game cloud your judgment, as this unit is still one of the league’s best. They are an analytics monster and feature a -21.1% DVOA rating, which is tops in the NFL. Chicago is actually the number three DVOA team overall because its offense (14th) and special teams (ninth) are good too. Finally, there is the coaching matchup. Everyone thinks that Bill Belichick is the smartest bench boss in the league (and he may very well be) but most of the stiffs he goes up against are so incompetent that BB looks better just by existing. That will not be the case here because Matt Nagy is a true offensive genius and an absolute rising star in the coaching ranks. Chicago got caught up last week in a look-ahead spot thinking that all they had to do to win was show up. All hands will be on deck against this beatable invader in what has to be considered one of the hottest tickets in quite some time at Soldier Field. Bears outright is the confident call here. Recommendation: Chicago +131

 

Cincinnati +6 over KANSAS CITY

1:00 PM EST. The Chiefs didn’t really lose any market credibility in that 43-40 loss to the resurgent Patriots on Monday night. Despite losing, it is safe to suggest that their stock went up and not down because it’s not like they lost to the Cardinals. No, the Chiefs went into Foxborough to play the GOAT and the GENIUS on a Monday night and nearly pulled off the upset. Unlike past Kansas City teams, New England didn't win because Kansas City kept stalling out at midfield and struggled to pick up any meaningful scoring opportunities. The Patriots won because they got the ball last. That is what this market saw and they will now be terrified to bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs with that offense. Throwing for 354 yards and four scores, it was one of Mahomes’ best efforts to date. After the break, the Chiefs were basically unstoppable, as they scored 31 points on six possessions. We could go over all the numbers but it matters not. The point is that the Chiefs stock went up in a loss, as would anyone’s would in a three-point road loss to the Patriots.

 

Some things never change. Cincinnati losing to Pittsburgh is an annual event only this event happens twice a year (or three times if they happen to meet in the playoffs). This game would be higher on our radar and it could get there if we get a true read on the Bengals mindset after another loss to the Steelers. That loss stings because it said that the Bengals improvements this year haven't extended against the one team that has long been a problem. Will the sting carry over to this game is the question we’re going to have to answer before kickoff to pull the trigger. We’ll be watching news and Twitter reports about how practice went this week and whether or not the Bengals considered last week’s loss a moral victory of sorts, much like the Chief will treat their loss to the Patriots. There is no chance that we’re taking the Chiefs. We’re getting inflated points on a Bengals team that figures to put up plenty of yards and points against an already worn out defense and freshness or lack thereof is absolutely a thing. The “pitch count” on K.C’s defense is getting extremely high and on a short week, this is not a team to be spotting significant points with against a formidable offense in its own right. Recommendation: Cincinnati -6

 

PHILADELPHIA -5 over Carolina

1:00 PM EST. Our stance on the Panthers has not changed. They have some great players and if you are lucky enough to have a few of them on your fantasy team, then you might be doing pretty well, however, in real life, Carolina cannot be trusted. The Panthers are a high profile team after a run of playoff appearances, but quarterback Cam Newton is one of the most popular players in the NFL, but that only inflates his value. We have not seen a damn thing from the Panthers that would influence us to get behind them here.

When a team comes off a big prime time win they are often overvalued, but fortunately for us, the Eagles pounding the hapless Giants 34-13 to kick off Week 6 isn't holding much weight with the market. Prior to that Giants game, Philly dropped three out of four games racking up defeats against the Vikings, Titans and Buccaneers respectively. There is no doubt the Giants are lousy, but it can't be ignored that the Eagles are getting better week after week. Carson Wentz was flawless and finally looks fully recovered from his offseason knee surgery, as he put up 278 yards with three touchdowns against the Giants. He also completed 26-of-36 passes. in his four starts so far. Wentz is completing 68.4% of his passes for 1192 yards, eight majors and just on pick. The Eagles are 3-2, but they have covered just two spreads so far in 2018. When you don't cash tickets, the market takes notice and because of that, the Eagles are an underpriced favorite here. Recommendation: Philadelphia -5

 

N.Y. JETS +3½ -106 over Minnesota

1:00 PM EST. You might think there might not be much animosity between these two inter-conference foes. After all, the Jets and Vikings have played just four times in the 21st century with the last meeting coming back in 2014. However, when then free agent quarterback Kirk Cousins was ready to make a decision on which team he was going to sign with this offseason, his choice came down to the Vikings or the Jets. New York was offering more money, while the Vikings were coming off a run to the NFC Championship game. What would typically have been a private decision was made very public when Cousins had cameras follow him around this offseason. It was interesting to watch him and his agent rank potential suitors and then finally settle on the Vikings as they had a "better environment" surrounding the team. New York made other plans and traded up to draft a potential franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold. With Darnold at the helm, the Jets are 3-3 and coming off back-to-back wins over the Colts and Broncos. The rookie hasn't looked out of place so far and he, as well as his Jets teammates,  know that Cousins, whether intentional or not, dissed the entire organization and shunned them in favor of the Vikings in front of the world. That’s locker room material right there.

 

Targeting teams that have high profile prime-time games on the horizon is a part of our criteria and the Vikings are hosting the New Orleans Saints next Sunday night in a rematch of the last January's Minneapolis Miracle. That was a huge game and round two is going to get a ton of press next week, as there is more that goes into the production of those isolated games than that of a regular Sunday. Players have more commitments with interviews and ticket requests from family and friends. A game on Sunday Night Football is an event and while there is a game to be played, it comes secondary to making sure one of TV's most-watched show gets all their production elements in. A game in New York against an AFC opponent could be an afterthought for the Vikes and it’s not like they haven’t shown a propensity for doing exactly that. They overlooked Buffalo with a game against the Rams on deck, also in prime time and last week, they were flat against the Cardinals.

The Vikes played a huge Thursday night game in Los Angeles against the Rams in Week 4 and then went to Philly and beat the Super Bowl champion Eagles in Week 5 before dismantling the Cardinals last week. If there was a time to stop and take another breath, this is it, especially with the Saints on deck. Recommendation: NY Jets +3½ -106

 

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