Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, NY

Streaming: ESPN2

Syracuse +9½ over SMU

12:00 PM EST. SMU is becoming one of those teams the market can't get enough of. The Mustangs are right in the thick of the ACC championship race, Kevin Jennings is putting together an outstanding season, and their offense has become a nightmare for opposing defenses. Last week, SMU dismantled California in the second half, reinforcing the perception that the Mustangs are a legitimate conference contender. Syracuse, meanwhile, needed overtime and a fair amount of good fortune to beat North Carolina and finally end a year-long conference losing streak. The contrast couldn't be more obvious, and neither could the market's reaction. SMU opened as an 8½-point favorite, and bettors wasted little time pushing that number through nine and toward double digits. Everyone wants the Mustangs, and the oddsmakers are more than happy to accommodate them.

But here's the problem with paying a premium for a team that's playing well: the good news is already in the number. SMU's offense is clicking, Jennings is completing better than 72% of his passes, and the Mustangs have established themselves as one of the ACC's better teams. None of that is a secret. The betting public knows it, the bookmakers know it, and the people laying nearly double digits on the road certainly know it. The line opened at 8½ and was immediately bet up, which tells us plenty about which side the market prefers. We're not interested in following that money after the price has already moved. Buying SMU now is like arriving at a sale after someone has replaced all the discount tags with full retail prices.

Syracuse has been a difficult team to evaluate because its quarterback situation has been a revolving door. Injuries forced the Orange to dig deep into their depth chart, and their results reflected that instability. However, Steve Angeli returned last week after missing three games and immediately gave the offense a different look. He threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns in the overtime victory at North Carolina, and while it wasn't a flawless performance, it was a considerable improvement over what Syracuse had been getting. A team finally getting its starting quarterback back isn't necessarily the same team responsible for its ugly season-long statistics. That's an important distinction, particularly when the market continues to price Syracuse largely on what happened while Angeli was unavailable.

There's also something to be said for the circumstances surrounding this game. Syracuse returns to the Dome after finally breaking through with a conference victory, while SMU travels north for a noon kickoff on Halloween. The Mustangs have bigger ambitions than beating a struggling Syracuse team, with the ACC championship race becoming increasingly important as November approaches. There's also speculation surrounding Rhett Lashlee's future, another potential distraction for a program enjoying considerable success. None of these things guarantees a flat performance, but they're part of the overall picture when evaluating whether a road favorite deserves to be laying this many points. SMU can be the superior team in every conventional category and still find itself in a four-quarter battle.

And let's not pretend SMU is some flawless machine. The Mustangs have been excellent offensively, but their defense has been vulnerable to explosive plays, which happens to be one area where Syracuse has shown considerable ability. We're not going to turn this into a lecture about defensive efficiency, third-down percentages, or which coordinator has the better playbook. That's the sort of information everyone uses to justify laying points with the better team. We're interested in the difference between the two teams' actual capabilities and how the market currently perceives them. SMU is being priced at the height of its popularity, while Syracuse is still carrying the baggage of a miserable first half of the season. With Angeli back, that perception may be lagging behind reality.

The Mustangs might win this game by three touchdowns. That's entirely possible. But we're not in the business of predicting which team will win or which quarterback will put up the prettiest statistics. We're in the business of finding numbers that offer value, and there's a big difference between SMU laying 8½ when this market opened and laying 9½ after everyone has rushed to the window. Syracuse is the ugly side, the unpopular side, and the side that nobody wants to trust. That's exactly why we're interested. Give us the home underdog, its returning quarterback, and more than a touchdown against a road favorite whose reputation has become considerably more expensive than it was a week ago.

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