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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL

Stream: ABC

Alabama -2½ over Georgia

7:30 PM EST. Georgia is 5-0, ranked second in the country, and apparently halfway to being inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame. There's just one little problem. Who the hell have the Bulldogs beaten? Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. That's the résumé. Georgia has been beating up on opponents that have about as much business challenging for a national championship as Bowling Green does. The Bulldogs have posted scores of 63-3, 70-20, 45-17, 41-13 and 38-14, and those eye-popping margins have sent their stock into the stratosphere. But beating up on inferior competition doesn't automatically make you an elite football team. It just makes you very good at beating up on inferior competition.

Take Oklahoma, for example. Georgia hammered the Sooners 41-13, which looked impressive until Oklahoma proceeded to score a grand total of 37 points over its next three games. Then came Vanderbilt, which had to use its backup quarterback and still managed to hang around long enough to cover the number. Georgia eventually pulled away, but the Bulldogs weren't exactly facing the 1985 Chicago Bears.

Here's the number that matters: Georgia's strength of schedule ranks 86th nationally. Alabama's ranks ninth. That's a difference of 77 spots, and it's a pretty significant detail when evaluating two undefeated teams that the market has priced almost equally.

Alabama hasn't been feasting on the same collection of cupcakes. The Crimson Tide have dismantled Kentucky and South Carolina, and last week they embarrassed a previously unbeaten Mississippi State team, 56-23. That was supposed to be a dangerous opponent. Alabama made the Bulldogs look like they'd accidentally wandered onto the wrong field during warmups

And then there's the weather, which might be the biggest storyline of the entire weekend. Hurricane Isaias is threatening to turn Tuscaloosa into a swimming pool, with the possibility of heavy rain, winds exceeding 20 mph and even a change to the game's scheduled kickoff. Nobody knows exactly what conditions will look like when these two take the field, but a nasty forecast could turn this heavyweight showdown into a battle of field position, ball security and physical football. Alabama's improved offensive line and opportunistic defense are well equipped for that kind of fight. The Tide have already intercepted eight passes in five games, and a slippery football with swirling winds could make life particularly uncomfortable for Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton. This might not be a night for pretty football, but nobody awards style points in the SEC.

Meanwhile, Keelon Russell is growing increasingly comfortable in Kalen DeBoer's offense, and the Tide are playing with the confidence of a team that has been tested rather than one whose biggest weekly challenge has been deciding when to pull the starters. Georgia's reputation is enormous, but reputation isn't the same thing as current value. The Bulldogs are getting priced like the Georgia teams that terrorized college football for years, even though this particular edition has yet to prove it belongs in that company. Alabama, on the other hand, has faced substantially better competition, passed those tests with flying colors and now gets Georgia in Tuscaloosa. The wrong team is getting all the respect. Alabama is grossly undervalued at this price, and laying less than a field goal at home is an opportunity worth attacking.

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