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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pitbull Stadium, Miami, FL

Stream: ESPN2

FIU -6½ -110 over New Mexico St

7:30 PM EST. This one is less about trying to determine whether FIU is six points better than New Mexico State and more about what the Aggies have been through over the past two weeks. Scheduling matters in college football, and the contrast between these two teams tonight is difficult to ignore.

New Mexico State is playing its third game in 11 days. The first was against rival New Mexico, a game that carries considerably more emotion than your ordinary Saturday on the schedule. Six days later came the Conference USA opener against Western Kentucky, and the Aggies responded with an impressive 34-13 victory. Now, six days after that, they're being asked to travel to Miami and crank it up again.

That's a lot of football packed into a very small window, and the circumstances make it even more interesting. Those weren't two meaningless games before this one. New Mexico was the rivalry game and Western Kentucky was the conference opener. New Mexico State had every reason to empty the tank in both.

FIU has been sitting around waiting.

The Panthers last played September 26, meaning they've had 11 full days between games. While New Mexico State has been preparing, playing, recovering, preparing again, playing again and then getting on an airplane for Miami, FIU has had all the time it could possibly ask for to rest and prepare for one opponent.

We'll gladly pay for that advantage.

There's another reason the timing works for us. New Mexico State's stock is higher today than it was a week ago. The Aggies just beat Western Kentucky by three touchdowns, held the Hilltoppers to 43 rushing yards and got another solid performance from Adam Damante. James Jones has also emerged in the backfield, so there are suddenly plenty of reasons to feel good about New Mexico State.

We're selling that performance.

Western Kentucky provided New Mexico State with a matchup that suited it extremely well. FIU does not. The Panthers have allowed only 80 rushing yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry, and that's significant because New Mexico State would much rather establish James Jones and the running game than put everything on Damante.

Damante has completed 71% of his passes and thrown four touchdowns since taking over, but he's thrown for only 162 and 146 yards in his two extended appearances. He's been efficient because he hasn't been asked to carry the offense. If FIU takes away the run and starts putting New Mexico State behind the chains, tonight becomes a very different assignment.

FIU's defense has allowed just 244 yards and 14.5 points per game, and its front has produced three sacks in each of the past three games. That's a nasty combination for an Aggies offense playing its third game in 11 days behind an offensive line that remains a work in progress.

The Panthers haven't exactly been lighting up scoreboards themselves, which is why laying -6½ isn't going to attract everybody. That's fine. This is a spot where fatigue doesn't necessarily reveal itself in the first quarter. It often appears later, particularly along the lines of scrimmage, when one team has fresh legs and the other has spent the previous 11 days playing three football games.

New Mexico State just gave us its best performance of the season. It came in a conference opener, immediately following an emotional rivalry game. Now comes the road trip to Miami with another game six days later.

FIU has been home resting and preparing for 11 days.

That's a massive situational edge, and we're going to trust it.

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