Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

7:00 PM EST. Records without context are dangerous, and Jacksonville State's 3-2 mark is a perfect example. There are 136 teams playing FBS football and the Gamecocks' strength of schedule ranks 132nd. In other words, almost nobody in the country has had an easier road, yet Jacksonville State has still managed to lose twice.

Now they're favored on the road.

We'll take Kennesaw State outright.

Jacksonville State's schedule has included Eastern Kentucky of the FCS, Middle Tennessee, an Ohio team without its starting quarterback and Georgia Southern, along with North Dakota State. Even against that collection, the Gamecocks haven't scored more than 24 offensive points in regulation against an FBS opponent. Their 31 points against Georgia Southern included a punt-return touchdown.

That's important because Jacksonville State's entire offense has become far too dependent on quarterback Caden Creel. He's not just their quarterback; he's essentially their running game, too. Creel has 49 more rushing attempts than any Jacksonville State running back and accounts for nearly half of the team's rushing attempts. That's an enormous workload for one player, particularly one who has already been responsible for seven turnovers — four interceptions and three fumbles.

There are some good backs on this roster. Lucas Farrington and Jalen Likely have both been productive when given opportunities. The problem is that neither has been used enough to prevent defenses from knowing where Jacksonville State wants to go when it needs a play.

Kennesaw State's 1-4 record looks considerably worse than Jacksonville State's 3-2, but those records weren't built against anything resembling the same opposition. The Owls have already dealt with Tennessee and have faced a considerably more demanding schedule overall. There's a huge difference between struggling against legitimate competition and accumulating victories against one of the weakest schedules in the country.

That's where we believe the market is getting this wrong.

We're certainly not suggesting Kennesaw State's offense has been good. It hasn't. Rickie Collins and the passing game have been limited, predictable and largely incapable of producing explosive plays. However, that's also why we're getting +125 at home against a Jacksonville State team whose record is doing most of the selling.

The matchup gives the Owls another path. Kennesaw State can run the football, with four different players already over 100 rushing yards, and that's where Jacksonville State is most vulnerable defensively. The Gamecocks' defensive numbers look respectable on the surface, but again, consider who they've played. This unit ranks poorly in Success Rate allowed despite facing one of the softest schedules in the country.

Jacksonville State also hasn't exactly been dominating those weak opponents. A team playing the 132nd-ranked schedule out of 136 should look a hell of a lot better than 3-2 if it's worthy of laying road points in conference play.

Instead, we're being asked to trust a favorite with an offense overly dependent on a turnover-prone quarterback, a defense whose numbers have been accumulated against weak competition and a résumé that looks much better until you examine what's underneath it.

Kennesaw State has its flaws. They're right there for everyone to see, which is precisely why the Owls are the underdog at home. Jacksonville State's flaws have been partially hidden by its schedule.

We'll take the team whose ugly record has been earned against the tougher road rather than the team whose winning record has been built against cupcakes.

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