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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, CO

Stream: USA Net

Colorado St +6½ -105 over Oregon St

6:00 PM EST. Oregon State has been one of the early-season surprises, and the market has noticed. The Beavers are 2-2 but 4-0 against the spread, they've been throwing the football all over the yard and first-year coach JaMarcus Shephard has quickly changed the perception surrounding this program. That's all fine and good, but perception eventually gets incorporated into the price. We're not interested in joining the party after everybody else has already arrived.

Colorado State isn't exactly entering this one covered in glory. The Rams have surrendered 100 points over their past two games against BYU and UTSA, including 59 last week in San Antonio. That's ugly, and Oregon State's passing attack is precisely the type capable of exploiting those problems. Braden Atkinson has already thrown for 1,421 yards and 11 touchdowns, while freshman Jesse Legree has emerged as a legitimate home-run threat. Oregon State ranks third nationally in passing yards per game. We know exactly what we're stepping in front of here.

But Colorado State can move the football, too. The Rams are averaging 297 passing yards per game and have a much more balanced offense than Oregon State. Most importantly for this matchup, CSU can run it, averaging roughly 5½ yards per carry. That's significant because the best way to deal with Oregon State's rapid-fire passing attack is to keep Atkinson standing on the sideline. Long drives, first downs and a productive running game can shorten this thing considerably.

Colorado State also showed something offensively last week despite giving up 59. With Hauss Henjy sidelined, K'Saan Farrar stepped in and threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns against UTSA. If Henjy returns, Jim Mora gets his dual-threat quarterback back. If he doesn't, Farrar has already demonstrated that the Rams aren't helpless without him. There is enough offensive production here to trade scores with Oregon State, and getting six points at home provides plenty of room to work with.

The Beavers deserve credit, but they're becoming a very fashionable team awfully quickly. They've covered four straight, Atkinson's numbers jump off the page and Shephard is already generating buzz. That's exactly when we're reluctant to pay the premium. Oregon State's offense is explosive, but it's also extremely one-dimensional, relying heavily on Atkinson and the passing game while treating the running game like an inconvenience.

Nobody wants Colorado State after watching its defense get torched for 100 points in two weeks. Perfect. That's why we're getting six points at home with a Rams offense capable of answering back. Oregon State can pile up passing yards and still find itself in a four-quarter football game here.

We're buying Colorado State when nobody wants them and selling a little Oregon State when everybody suddenly does.

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