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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Marshall +18½ -110 over James Madison

3:45 PM EST. There isn't much mystery surrounding why James Madison is laying this kind of number. The Dukes are 4-0, they're scoring nearly 45 points per game, they're allowing barely 12 and they've been destroying just about everybody put in front of them. Meanwhile, Marshall needed a field goal in the final seconds last week just to escape Gardner-Webb, 36-35. One team looks like a machine and the other nearly lost to an FCS opponent. That's how we arrive at 18½ points, and we'll happily take them.

Marshall's close call last week was ugly, but there was something useful buried inside it. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson threw for nearly 400 yards, and the Herd demonstrated that when they're forced into a shootout, they have enough offense to respond. That's important here because we're not asking Marshall to shut down James Madison for four quarters. At +18½, we're asking the Herd to score enough points to prevent this thing from getting completely away from them.

James Madison's defensive numbers are outstanding, but context matters. The Dukes' schedule hasn't exactly been a murderer's row, and one of the games contributing to those ridiculous numbers was an 87-point demolition of Wagner. JMU may very well be the best team Marshall has seen since Penn State, but there's a difference between acknowledging that and spotting nearly three touchdowns in a conference game.

There's also an interesting quarterback situation developing for James Madison. Camden Coleman has played extremely well in JC Evans' absence, completing better than 62% of his passes with eight touchdowns and just one interception. Evans, however, won the job coming out of camp and is expected to be available again. Maybe Billy Napier sticks with Coleman and nothing changes. Maybe Evans gets involved. Either way, laying 18½ isn't particularly appealing when there's at least some uncertainty surrounding who will be taking the snaps.

Marshall also hasn't been intimidated by this opponent since joining the Sun Belt. The Herd have beaten James Madison outright twice since 2022 and even in last year's 35-23 loss, Marshall actually outgained the Dukes. We're not interested in turning that into some meaningless trend argument, but it does provide some evidence that the gap between these programs hasn't traditionally been as enormous as this number suggests.

The market is essentially asking Marshall to pay the full penalty for almost losing to Gardner-Webb while simultaneously asking bettors to pay full price for everything James Madison has accomplished during its unbeaten start. That's an awfully convenient combination for anyone looking to lay the points.

James Madison can be the better team. They can control the game. They can remain unbeaten. They can even win comfortably. None of those things require them to win by 19.That's a lot of points for us to put in our pocket in a conference game.

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