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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

California +105 over Clemson 

10:30 PM EST. Clemson's 2-1 record is doing a pretty good job of disguising how poorly the Tigers have played. They were demolished 41-17 by LSU, then needed a fourth-quarter rally following a lengthy weather delay to escape North Carolina, 22-17. Clemson went 24 consecutive meaningful possessions without scoring a touchdown with freshman Tait Reynolds at quarterback before finally breaking through late against the Tar Heels. The Tigers are averaging just 15.7 points per game against FBS opponents, and that's a tough offense to trust laying anything on the road.

Clemson's problems aren't confined to quarterback. The Tigers have scored touchdowns on only 33% of their red-zone possessions, among the worst rates in the country, while the defensive front hasn't performed to its usual standard either. LSU and North Carolina both found success running the football, and now Clemson makes its first-ever ACC trip to California on a short week. Waiting on the other side of this game is Miami back home, so the scheduling spot isn't particularly attractive either.

California hasn't exactly been lighting up scoreboards, but sophomore quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is considerably further along than Reynolds. After a rough opener against UCLA, Sagapolutele has completed better than 70% of his passes with five touchdowns and no interceptions over Cal's last two games, both victories. The Bears don't need him to become Trevor Lawrence here. They need him to protect the football and allow a defense that has been pretty dependable when it isn't defending short fields to make Clemson string together scoring drives.

That's the part of this matchup we can't get past. Clemson still carries the name, pedigree and perception of the program that dominated the ACC for years, but we're being asked to price today's Tigers as if some of that old Clemson remains. We haven't seen it. Their offense has been one of the least productive in the country, their red-zone execution has been dreadful and now they're traveling across three time zones to face a Cal team with the better quarterback at home. At essentially pick'em, we'll gladly make Clemson prove that its reputation still belongs in the number. California outright.

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