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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL

Stream: ESPN

UAB +6½ -110 over Navy

7:00 PM EST. Navy laying road points has some appeal on the surface because the Midshipmen are coming off a bye while UAB is working on a short week. That's precisely the type of scheduling edge that gets baked into a number quickly. Navy is also 3-0 all-time against UAB, so there isn't much in the recent history that's going to encourage anyone to grab the Blazers. We're far more interested in what these teams look like right now, and Navy laying nearly a touchdown on the road looks like an inflated price.

Navy's 38-30 loss at Florida Atlantic was considerably uglier than the final score suggests. The Midshipmen trailed 31-0 before mounting a second-half comeback, and starting quarterback Braxton Woodson went down with an ankle injury. He's out here, leaving Jackson Gutierrez to make his first start. Navy's offense had already become heavily dependent on quarterback runs, and now it loses the quarterback around whom that attack was built. That's a meaningful adjustment for an offense that doesn't have much margin for error when it gets behind the chains.

UAB's 1-2 record isn't pretty, but there are signs that this is a much more functional outfit under Alex Mortensen. The Blazers are averaging 178 rushing yards per game, while Ryder Burton gives them enough of a passing threat to prevent Navy from simply loading up against the run. More interesting is what's happening defensively. UAB held Louisiana scoreless and to only 108 yards in the second half last week, and the Blazers are allowing just 116 passing yards per game, sixth-best in the country. This will also be the fourth consecutive season they've faced Navy, so the option isn't some foreign offense they're trying to decipher on a few days' notice.

The market wants us to focus on Navy's extra rest and UAB's short turnaround. We'd rather focus on a Midshipmen team that was buried 31-0 in its last game, is changing quarterbacks and is now being asked to win comfortably on the road. UAB is at home, its defense is improving and the Blazers have enough on the ground to shorten this game and keep Navy from creating separation. Six-and-a-half points is too much.

Play: UAB +6½ -110

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