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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Memphis +4½ -110 over UNLV

10:00 PM EST. Sometimes the handicap isn't about identifying the better team. It's about identifying what the market has already priced into that team, and UNLV might be carrying as much Week 0 enthusiasm as anyone on the board. Everywhere we look, it's Rebels, Rebels and more Rebels. Pick sheets, newsletters, publications and talking heads have seemingly arrived at the same conclusion: UNLV is the side. When an opinion becomes this comfortable and this widespread, our instinct isn't to join the party. It's to start looking at the price being offered on the other side.

There are legitimate reasons to like UNLV. Dan Mullen is entering his second season, the Rebels are at home and they've generated plenty of optimism with the talent they've brought into Las Vegas. We get it. The problem is that none of this is a secret. The market knows it, the betting public knows it and seemingly everybody handicapping the game knows it. At some point, all that enthusiasm gets baked into the number, and we believe that's exactly what has happened here. We're not being asked whether UNLV can win. We're being asked whether they're worthy of spotting Memphis 4½ points, and those are two very different questions.

Memphis comes into this game with far less certainty and virtually none of the hype. Charles Huff is taking over, the Tigers haven't publicly settled their quarterback situation and there are enough unknowns to make them an uncomfortable choice. Good. That's why we're getting the inflated number. UNLV has questions of its own, including uncertainty at quarterback and significant turnover, but those concerns are being largely dismissed while every Memphis question is being magnified. When one side of a matchup is being viewed almost exclusively through an optimistic lens and the other through a pessimistic one, value can show up quickly.

We're not interested in joining a crowded room at a bad price. Perhaps UNLV wins this game, but the Rebels have become such an obvious choice that we're being compensated to go the other way. Week 0 is filled with uncertainty, new personnel and teams still figuring out exactly what they have, which makes laying inflated points particularly unappealing. The entire world appears ready to crown UNLV before the season has even started. We'll gladly step aside, take the points and force the popular side to beat us. Memphis +4½ is the call.

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