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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Dayton +115 over George Mason

7:00 PM EST Backing Dayton in this spot is a value play built around timing and market perception. George Mason’s overall record and strong home résumé will attract attention, but recent form matters — and the Patriots have shown signs of regression. When a team drops back-to-back games and the market continues to price them based on earlier success, that can create an opportunity on the other side. Dayton brings a balanced scoring attack and enough defensive activity on the perimeter to disrupt rhythm, which is critical in a road conference matchup.

The George Mason have been excellent at home, but their offensive efficiency can fluctuate when pressured by athletic guard play. Dayton’s backcourt depth gives them multiple creators who can generate offense late in the shot clock, and that versatility travels well. The Flyers also get to the foul line at a steady rate, which becomes vital in what projects as a tight, half-court battle. If this game is played in the 60s or low 70s, the ability to manufacture points in crunch time could swing the outcome.

From a wagering perspective, this is about grabbing the team that offers situational upside rather than leaning solely on home dominance trends. George Mason’s strong record at EagleBank Arena is already reflected in the line, while Dayton’s recent road losses may be overstated in the number. In conference play, familiarity narrows the gap, and disciplined guard play often dictates late possessions. With Dayton capable of matching efficiency and bringing more scoring balance, the Flyers present the sharper value angle in a matchup that’s likely closer than public perception suggests.

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