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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Lafayette -105 over Holy Cross

6:00 PM EST Holy Cross has struggled to string together consistent performances, particularly against conference opponents that can defend the perimeter and control tempo. Lafayette’s recent stretch shows a team capable of grinding out possessions and keeping games within reach, even when shots aren’t falling at a high clip. In a matchup where the spread is short and the margin projects to be tight, the slight underdog or short road price becomes far more attractive from a value standpoint.

The biggest edge for Lafayette lies in execution and guard play. Their offense isn’t explosive, but it is structured, and they take care of the ball better than Holy Cross in half-court settings. Against a Holy Cross Crusaders defense that has allowed opponents to shoot comfortably from the field this season, there should be efficient scoring opportunities if Lafayette remains patient. Holy Cross has also had difficulty closing games, particularly after defensive lapses late. If this contest stays in the 60s, which stylistically makes sense given both teams’ pace, Lafayette’s ability to manufacture points at the free-throw line could become the difference.

From a betting perspective, this is a classic buy-low spot on the road team. Holy Cross being installed as a small home favorite reflects venue respect more than form. Lafayette has historically competed well in this matchup and profiles as the steadier side entering tonight. In conference games where familiarity reduces volatility, taking the team with slightly better recent defensive trends and late-game scoring value offers the sharper angle. Lafayette doesn’t need a blowout — just cleaner execution in a game that should be decided in the final few minutes.

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