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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New Orleans +9½ -110 over Golden State

10:00 PM EST. The schedule makes this one even better than advertised. Tonight is the fifth and final game of Golden State's homestand, the Warriors have won the first four of the stand and seven straight overall, and starting Wednesday they disappear for five straight on the road, Houston, San Antonio, New Orleans, Dallas and Memphis, and do not sleep in their own beds again until November 22. This is the classic get away game at the end of a long stay home, bags half packed, families handled, heads already on the trip, and a 4-6 opponent in the building that nobody circles on the calendar. Add in that Golden State needed overtime to put Orlando away on Saturday night, and the legs and the focus are both suspect for a team being asked to win by double digits.

The Warriors are also running out of bodies to bury anyone with. Jimmy Butler is gone until January after ACL surgery, Moses Moody is out until December, Kristaps Porzingis is not with the team, and Will Richard just tore a ligament in his thumb, which adds up to roughly 98 minutes a night of rotation sitting in street clothes. What is left is Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and a bench held together by Gary Payton II and hope. New Orleans is precisely the wrong opponent for a thin, distracted favourite, because the Pelicans play fast, score 120.5 points a game, second best in the league, and hunt turnovers with 11.2 steals a night, also second best. Zion Williamson is shooting 59.3 percent and just went a perfect 9 for 9 for 25 points last night, Jeremiah Fears has scored 19 or more in three straight games, and Trey Murphy III dropped 26 last night, so the Pelicans have three different ways to keep the scoreboard moving and keep this thing inside two possessions.

Of course we know and so do the odds makers thar New Orleans is on the second night of a back to back after giving up 139 to the Clippers last night, Yves Missi is out, Dejounte Murray has missed two straight for personal reasons and was still unresolved this morning, and asking a leaky defense to behave two nights running is a real ask. But a cover does not need the Pelicans to defend like champions. It needs them to score, which they do against everybody, against a favourite whose rotation is gutted, whose legs went overtime on Saturday, and whose minds are already at the airport.

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