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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Denver -11½ over New Orleans

9:00 PM EST. Nikola Jokic went 5-for-19 on Thursday. Read that again, because it does not happen often, and it does not happen twice in a row. The Nuggets lost their opener 96-84 in Oklahoma City, shooting 37.8% from the field — their worst mark since the 2024 opener — turning it over 22 times, with Jamal Murray going 2-of-11 and Aaron Gordon about the only starter who looked like himself. That came on the road against the team that had the league's best defensive rating last season. One rough night in Oklahoma City does not erase the fact that Denver had the NBA's best offensive rating last year, and now Jokic gets two days of rest, a home crowd, and one of the league's softest defenses to take it out on.

New Orleans, on the other hand, is running on fumes. The Pelicans are 0-2, and both losses stung in the worst way — they led Indiana by eight in the fourth quarter of the opener and lost 123-120, then lost 120-119 in Salt Lake City on Friday night. That is two one-possession losses in three nights, and now they play a second straight night at altitude with no rest. They might also be without their starting center: Yves Missi left Friday's game with a left knee injury and will be evaluated Saturday in Denver, and if he sits, second-year big Derik Queen — who played 29 minutes on Friday — draws the Jokic assignment on tired legs. That is a brutal ask. New Orleans ranked 25th in defensive rating and 28th in defensive rebounding last season, and those are exactly the cracks Jokic lives in. Denver won all three meetings last year, including a 122-88 rout at Ball Arena, and has won five straight home games against the Pelicans.

Double digits is a lot to lay, and we are not pretending otherwise. Denver is not at full strength either — Cam Johnson is out with an ankle, Spencer Jones with hamstrings, Julian Strawther with a knee, and Alpha Diallo is questionable with a wrist — and Zion Williamson is the one guy who can flip this game by himself, after scoring 22 and 23 in the first two games. New Orleans has also hung around late in both games so far, so a backdoor cover is very much on the table. But a fresh Denver team at home, with the best player in the world coming off a 5-for-19 night, against a gassed opponent missing possibly its starting center, is the kind of spot that turns into blowout quickly.

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