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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Antonio +4½ -110 over Oklahoma City

Western Conference Finals – Game 5

Series tied 2-2

Win two of the next three games and you're playing for an NBA championship. That's where we stand as this series shifts back to Oklahoma City tied at two games apiece after the Spurs delivered an emphatic statement in Game 4.

It would be very easy to side with the Thunder here. They're back at home, where they've been dominant all season. They're one of the league's toughest teams mentally and physically. They respond well after losses, and nobody would be surprised if Oklahoma City bounced back with a strong performance.

The problem is that we're being asked to lay points against a team that might be the most dangerous team left standing. San Antonio suddenly has everything working in its favor. The Spurs have confidence, momentum, belief and perhaps most importantly, they have the best player in the series. Victor Wembanyama took over Game 4 with 33 points and looked every bit like the superstar Oklahoma City has struggled to contain throughout this matchup. His presence changes everything on both ends of the floor. The Thunder know they have to account for him at all times, and that creates opportunities for everyone else.

The Spurs also appear to have found something defensively. Their adjustments in Game 4 were significant. Instead of repeatedly sending aggressive traps that left shooters open, San Antonio mixed its coverages, brought help from better angles and forced Oklahoma City into uncomfortable offensive possessions. The result was an 82-point output from a Thunder team that usually generates quality looks with ease.

Will Oklahoma City make adjustments? Of course they will. That's what great teams do. But San Antonio now knows it can win this matchup. The Spurs have already won outright in Oklahoma City once in this series and have proven they can dictate stretches of play against the top seed. That confidence matters this time of year.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City's injury situation remains a concern. Jalen Williams remains questionable with a hamstring issue and Ajay Mitchell is unavailable. Even if Williams suits up, hamstring injuries are notoriously difficult to trust in a playoff setting where every possession demands maximum effort. Oklahoma City's margin for error shrinks considerably when one of its primary offensive creators isn't fully healthy.

Perhaps the biggest reason to grab the points is simple: San Antonio is capable of winning this game outright. When an underdog has the talent, confidence and matchup advantages necessary to win outright, taking the points becomes extremely attractive. The Spurs aren't hoping to hang around. They're trying to seize control of the series.

All respect goes to the Thunder. They've been one of the NBA's best teams from opening night through the playoffs and they're as resilient as any team in the league. But San Antonio has matched them punch for punch through four games and enters this contest playing its best basketball of the series.

In a game that figures to be highly competitive from start to finish, grabbing more than one possession with the hotter team is the preferred side.

Play: San Antonio +4½

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