Minnesota @ San Antonio
San Antonio -9½ -110 over Minnesota

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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Antonio -9½ -110 over Minnesota

NBA Playoff Series Game 4

San Antonio leads series 2-2

8:00 PM EST. The public is taking the points, they can’t push their tickets through fast enough, thus, we are once again doing what we do and are going to FADE the public. Minnesota grabbed a huge Game 4 win at home but this series now swings back to San Antonio, where the Spurs have been one of the most dominant teams in basketball all season.

The Timberwolves shot well enough to survive on Saturday, but they were also helped enormously by San Antonio not being able to finish after leading from almost gate to wire. Even with a poor shooting night from deep and a rough overall performance from De’Aaron Fox, the Spurs still managed to stay within striking distance until late in the fourth quarter. That says plenty about the gap between these teams when San Antonio plays anywhere close to its ceiling. Back at Frost Bank Center, where the Spurs have consistently overwhelmed opponents with pace, defense and transition scoring, the expectation is a far cleaner effort.

San Antonio remains one of the league’s most complete teams and their balance on both ends is what makes them so dangerous in bounce-back spots. The Spurs finished the regular season top-10 in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage defense while also ranking among the NBA leaders in point differential. They don’t rely on one player to carry the offense and their depth has consistently worn teams down over four quarters. Minnesota can score, but the Timberwolves still have defensive lapses that show up against elite offensive teams, especially on the road. They’ve also struggled historically in this building and now face a Spurs team that has responded extremely well after losses all season long.

The biggest concern for Minnesota is that Game 4 may end up being their missed opportunity. The Timberwolves got favorable whistles, won the battle on the offensive glass and still only escaped with a five-point victory at home. San Antonio is too disciplined and too talented offensively to expect another inefficient shooting performance, particularly from three-point range where the Spurs were far below their usual standard. Expect San Antonio to come out aggressively from the opening tip, push tempo and force Minnesota into uncomfortable half-court possessions. The Spurs have been money as favorites in bounce-back situations and this feels like a spot where they regain control of the series in convincing fashion. The play is San Antonio minus the points.

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Our Pick

San Antonio -9½ -110 (Risking 0 units - To Win: 0.00)

Detroit -125 over Cleveland