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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New Orleans -2 over L.A. Clippers

8:10 PM EST, We’re going to lay the small number with New Orleans here, and this is all about the injury report and line value. The market has adjusted this number in a way that doesn’t fully add up when you break it down. Two weeks ago, the Clip Joint were laying -8.5 in this same matchup and won comfortably. Now we’re seeing a complete flip to New Orleans -2, and that’s a massive swing that feels overcooked.

Kawhi Leonard is expected to play, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t. He sat out the Spurs game and comes into this one with three full days of rest, which is exactly how the Clip Joint manage him. He’s already made it clear they’re focused on winning games regardless of standings, so the intent is there. When Kawhi is active and rested, this team operates at a completely different level.

On the other side, there’s real uncertainty with New Orleans. Dejounte Murray is questionable, and that’s something to monitor, but the bigger factor is how this number has moved despite the Clip Joint likely having their best player available. Zion didn’t play in that previous meeting, which explains part of the adjustment, but not a 10+ point swing. That’s an overreaction, not a correction.

This line feels like the market is leaning too hard into recent form and not enough into true value and availability. Even factoring in Kawhi’s impact, he’s not worth this kind of adjustment on his own, especially when he’s expected to be on the floor. The number suggests New Orleans should be clearly better here — and that’s not the case. This is one of those spots where the number itself is the signal. The shift is too aggressive, the assumptions are too strong, and the value lands on the Pelicans. Lay the -2 with New Orleans and trust the number.

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