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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Memphis +5 -110 over Dallas   

8:30 PM EST Memphis has dropped seven of its last eight games, which is exactly why this number is inflated, but the underlying production hasn’t cratered. The Grizzlies are still averaging over 115 points per game, shooting 46% from the floor and nearly 80% from the free-throw line. They move the ball well (top 10 in assists) and generate extra possessions by forcing turnovers at a top-tier rate. Even in their recent loss to Sacramento, they shot 48% from the field and handed out 33 assists — that’s not a team that’s broken offensively. When a capable scoring team is priced like a bottom-feeder because of a short losing streak, that’s where underdog value starts to emerge.

The matchup with the Dallas Mavericks is tighter than it appears on the surface. Dallas scores 114.4 per game and shoots an efficient 47.3%, but they also give up 117.6 points per contest and rank near the bottom of the league in rebounding allowed. Memphis matches them on the glass at 44.7 boards per night and has historically created problems in this series, winning seven of the last eight meetings outright. Defensively, neither side has shown the ability to consistently string together stops, which makes covering a larger spread more difficult for the favorite. If this turns into a back-and-forth offensive game — and both teams rank in the bottom third in points allowed — possessions and variance naturally favor the team catching points.

Situational trends only add to the case. Dallas has struggled in rest-disadvantage spots and has failed to cover repeatedly against losing division opponents, while Memphis has consistently cashed tickets in this matchup. The market is reacting to the Grizzlies’ recent slide, but they remain competitive in key efficiency areas and still feature reliable scorers in Ja Morant and Ty Jerome who can keep pace in a high-total environment. With both teams allowing north of 117 points per game, separation is difficult to sustain for 48 minutes. When two defensively vulnerable teams meet and one is being discounted heavily because of short-term form, the sharper long-term play is taking Memphis plus the points.

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