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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Brooklyn +110 over Dallas 

7:30 PM EST Yes, Brooklyn has dropped four straight and sits near the bottom of the standings, but the market is pricing them as if they’re incapable of competing. That’s rarely the case in the NBA, where effort and situational edges often outweigh overall record. The Nets have actually been more respectable against the spread than their win-loss mark suggests, and when they clear 117 points, they’ve consistently rewarded backers. With Dallas surrendering 117.7 points per game, the pathway to a Nets upset is clear: this becomes a scoring game where Brooklyn’s young core finds rhythm early and forces the Mavericks to defend for four quarters.

The matchup data also paints a more competitive picture than the standings imply. The Dallas Mavericks allow opponents to shoot 46.7% from the field and have struggled to string together defensive stops, particularly on the road. While Dallas snapped a long losing streak in its last outing, that win came in a chaotic, short-handed game environment that’s unlikely to be replicated. Over the past 10 games, the Mavericks’ contests have averaged 230.1 total points — well above this number — signaling inconsistent defense and volatile pace. Meanwhile, Brooklyn’s recent losses have often hinged on late-game collapses rather than being outclassed for 48 minutes. That suggests regression could swing their way in a tight contest.

From a value standpoint, this is about timing and motivation. Dallas has won the last two head-to-head meetings, which can inflate confidence in the favorite, but the Mavericks have been unreliable in that role all season. Brooklyn, despite its flaws, plays better at home against the number and gets a boost from the return of interior presence Nicolas Claxton to stabilize the paint. With both teams outside serious postseason contention, this becomes more about pride, player development, and effort — areas where underdogs frequently outperform expectations. If the Nets clean up late-game execution and capitalize on Dallas’ defensive lapses, they have a legitimate opportunity to win outright, making Brooklyn the sharper value side tonight.

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