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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Golden State +6½ -110 over Denver 

3:30 PM EST Denver is coming off a statement win and continues to carry the profile of an elite offense, which naturally pushes the number upward. But this is a classic spot where recency bias creates opportunity. Golden State, even without Stephen Curry available, still plays at a competitive level defensively and has enough structure on that end to keep games within reach at home. When the spread stretches beyond multiple possessions, you’re no longer betting on who wins — you’re betting on margin — and that’s where the value shifts toward the underdog.

The Denver Nuggets deserve respect for owning one of the league’s most efficient offenses, but they’ve been inconsistent against the number in the favorite role, especially on the road. Blowout victories tend to inflate perception, and oddsmakers adjust accordingly. Nikola Jokic is the ultimate equalizer, yet Denver’s depth has been tested all season due to rotation instability and lingering injuries. When they’re laying points away from home, defensive focus can waver — and Golden State’s ball movement and perimeter volume create backdoor potential even if the Nuggets control stretches of the game.

From a betting standpoint, this sets up as a tighter contest than the line implies. The Warriors’ defensive efficiency and ability to generate runs at Chase Center make them live to cover even if Denver ultimately prevails. Add in the historical trend of Golden State responding well as a home underdog in conference play, and you have a situational edge layered on top of a mathematical one. With the number offering multiple possessions of cushion, backing Golden State plus the points provides value in what projects as a competitive Western Conference matchup rather than a runaway road win.

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