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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New Orleans +135 over Philadelphia 

7:00 PM EST Philadelphia enters on a three-game skid but is still laying points on the road largely because of brand power and star recognition. When a struggling favorite is priced as if a bounce-back is guaranteed, there’s often value on the other side. New Orleans has quietly been more competitive at Smoothie King Center than its overall record suggests, covering at a stronger rate at home and playing with more offensive confidence in its own building. In a matchup where the line is under two possessions, home-court variance becomes magnified.

The Philadelphia 76ers have leaned heavily on Tyrese Maxey’s scoring during this recent stretch, but defensively they’ve been vulnerable, allowing nearly 116 points per game on the season. That’s significant against a Pelicans team averaging over 114 per contest and capable of pushing pace. When New Orleans clears the 115-point mark, its performance against the spread improves dramatically, signaling that offensive rhythm is the swing factor. Philadelphia’s perimeter defense has allowed 13 made threes per game, while the Pelicans’ recent form shows they’re comfortable attacking from multiple levels. If this turns into a high-possession contest near the posted total, the underdog benefits from the added volatility.

From a betting perspective, this is about fading road chalk in a high total environment. Games lined in the 230s naturally create more variance, and that widens the upset window. Philadelphia has failed to cover in three straight and has been inconsistent away from home, while New Orleans has shown resilience as a sizable underdog this season. With the Pelicans’ offensive output closely mirroring what the 76ers typically concede, this matchup profiles much tighter than the standings imply. Taking New Orleans outright offers stronger value than trusting a short-handed favorite to stabilize immediately on the road.

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