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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Golden State +7½ -110 over San Antonio

10:00 PM EST Golden State catching points in this spot feels more like a market reaction to San Antonio’s recent surge than a true reflection of the gap between these teams. The Spurs have been excellent overall and just put up 138 points in a high-energy win over Dallas, but that type of offensive explosion can inflate perception heading into the next game. San Antonio has been strong all season, yet they’re not invincible, and asking them to win by margin against a veteran Warriors team that still moves the ball at an elite level is a different challenge. Even without some key names in the lineup, Golden State continues to rank near the top of the West in assists per game, which keeps their offense from becoming stagnant.

From a matchup standpoint, Golden State’s ability to generate steals and force turnovers could be a quiet equalizer. The Warriors create over 16 turnovers per game, and while San Antonio has been efficient, they’re not immune to stretches of loose ball security. If Golden State can speed the game up defensively and convert those extra possessions into transition opportunities, that’s how underdogs hang inside bigger spreads. The Warriors also attempt a high volume of threes, and while that can lead to volatility, it’s exactly what you want when grabbing points. A hot perimeter stretch from role players like Moody or Santos can swing momentum quickly, especially if the Spurs regress even slightly from their last outing’s 55% shooting performance.

Ultimately, this number suggests San Antonio should control the game comfortably, but Golden State’s profile doesn’t align with a team that folds easily. The Warriors are still competitive defensively, top 10 in points allowed, and they’ve shown the ability to grind games into half-court battles when necessary. San Antonio may very well win at home, but covering more than two possessions requires sustained separation, and Golden State’s experience and ball movement give them a strong chance to keep this within range. In a game where the spread feels a bit inflated by recent headlines, taking the points with the Warriors presents the sharper value play tonight.

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