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Posted at 11AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Atlanta +105 @ Memphis

8:00PM EST Atlanta comes into this matchup looking far worse on paper than it actually is, which is exactly why the value sits with the Hawks at plus money. Losing four straight naturally drives negative perception, but the underlying performance in their most recent game suggests this team is closer to a breakthrough than a collapse. The Hawks showed real fight after a disastrous first half, cutting a large deficit down to a single possession late despite poor shooting and uneven contributions. When the market prices a team based solely on results rather than trajectory, opportunities like +105 begin to stand out.

From a matchup perspective, Memphis is not the type of opponent that should be laying confidence against anyone. The Grizzlies’ defense grades out as middle-of-the-pack across nearly every meaningful category, and they lack the kind of disruptive perimeter pressure that has given Atlanta problems during this losing streak. Atlanta’s offense has struggled with efficiency, but the pieces are there to exploit average defenses, especially when Jalen Johnson is playing aggressively and attacking mismatches. Memphis doesn’t present an overwhelming interior presence outside of Jaren Jackson Jr., and if Atlanta can force switches and push tempo, they can create higher-quality looks than they’ve been getting recently.

The value with Atlanta at +105 is rooted in urgency and regression. Teams hovering around the play-in line tend to play with increased focus when slippage becomes costly, and the Hawks are approaching that point quickly. Defensive effort has flashed at a much higher level than their season-long numbers indicate, and if that second-half intensity carries over, Atlanta doesn’t need a perfect shooting night to win this game outright. Memphis is steady but unspectacular, and in a matchup between a desperate team showing signs of correction and an average opponent priced as the safer side, backing the Hawks at plus money is a calculated bet on improvement rather than reputation

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