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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Toronto +4 @ Golden State

10:00PM EST Toronto finds itself in another classic value spot here, and the market appears to be leaning too heavily on Golden State’s home reputation and three-point profile rather than the actual matchup history between these teams. The Raptors already proved they can dictate terms against the Warriors this season, and that December overtime win wasn’t a fluke — it was a product of pace, physicality, and balanced scoring. Oddsmakers are pricing this game as if Golden State holds a clear edge, yet Toronto’s ability to control the glass, attack mismatches, and generate offense from multiple spots continues to be undervalued, especially when they’re catching points.

From a stylistic standpoint, Toronto matches up better with Golden State than most opponents. The Warriors rely heavily on perimeter volume, but the Raptors’ length and switching ability can disrupt rhythm and force tougher looks, particularly when shots aren’t falling early. Toronto doesn’t need to win the three-point battle outright; they simply need to limit Golden State’s runs and punish them inside, where the Warriors have shown vulnerability. Scottie Barnes’ versatility allows Toronto to play bigger without sacrificing speed, while Brandon Ingram’s shot creation gives them a reliable late-clock option — something that matters greatly when grabbing points on the road.

The value of Toronto lies in both recent form and situational context. The Raptors are coming off a loss that looks worse on paper than it truly was, which helps suppress the line, while Golden State’s scoring differential and shooting numbers mask some inconsistency from night to night. This spread doesn’t require Toronto to dominate — just to stay competitive, something they’ve consistently done when games slow down and become physical. With multiple contributors capable of stepping up and a recent history of success against this opponent, taking the Raptors plus the points is a calculated play on matchup equity rather than name-brand perception

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