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Posted at 12:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Finals

Target Center: Minneapolis, Minnesota

Streaming on TNT

Wager: Dallas ML (best odds: +167 at Pinnacle)

8:40 PM EST. There isn't much to take from the meetings between these two programs in the regular season. In the first two matchups, both losses for Dallas, they were without Kyrie Irving and still had guys like Grant Williams and Dwight Powell on their roster. Their third affair had Kyrie back, a contest where he and Luka combined for 69 points in a home win, and in the final battle there was no Luka or Kyrie. The latest version of the Mavericks is by far the best form they've had all season, a 2.0 upgrade since they traded away Grant Williams and added extra muscle in PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford. But a lot of things changed in Dallas' presentation, particularly on defense. 

For the second season in a row, Jason Kidd has found a way to elevate their level of resistance, which is hard to explain. Many of the same personnel were there all season, yet the Mavericks were never a top-rated unit at any point, that is, until the final few months of action. Dallas ascended to the #1 defense in the NBA from mid-March to mid-April as they sought a higher playoff seed, beating out Miami, Minnesota, Orlando, Denver, Boston, and all the typical stalwarts. Whether it's simply more motivation or more of a focus on that side of the court, no bettor can dispute how improved they are defensively, and that's remained true throughout the postseason. In their last series, against an offense that was rated top-5 for all six months of the season, Dallas held their opponent to just 106 ppg. The Thunder averaged over 118 ppg leading up to the Semifinals.

The marriage of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving has taken on a new form, too, one that Minnesota also hasn't seen before. Kyrie has been an assist-machine, averaging over 6 per game in their series against the Thunder, and of course he remains one of the best scorers/finishers in the association. But Kyrie's unselfish nature has not only catalyzed the offense, it's telling his new counterparts that he trusts them to score. Pick and rolls with Daniel Gafford or Kyrie infiltrating the paint only to pop the rock out to PJ Washington for a dagger-three has been wonderful to watch, a true team growing before our eyes. Luka and Kyrie also support one another on and off the court and typically pick up the other's slack when they're having a rough night, something we didn't see happen as often last season.

Of course the Timberwolves are still pretty damn good, now they're at home after a huge series win, and they deserve to be the favorite in this series. But don't you think Minnesota might come into this contest with a little less urgency, perhaps even lackadaisical? Their all-in effort to eke out the series against Denver, including a shockingly impressive 20-point comeback in Game 7, has to wear on their energy heading into Wednesday's battle. It's a new series, and now they're the chalk, which means all the fanfare has surrounded the NBA's newest contender, a team that's still very green when it comes to high-level success. That could make any outfit a little fat and sassy, it's just human nature.

Luka, who's been playing pro-basketball since he was 16, and Kyrie, who's been a part of a champion team (Cleveland) and champion-level team talent (Boston) bring considerably more big-game experience into this series. We're not sure that Minnesota knows what's coming at them, and even worse for their spread tonight - Mike Conley might miss Game 1 due to a strained calf. The last time Minnesota was without their veteran point guard, a guy that Nikola Jokic called the most underrated player in the NBA, they lost by 15 points at home. The fact that Dallas isn't a bigger underdog tonight tells us everything we need to know - the Mavericks are a very live dog, and we're taking a shot.

Farley

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