Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +3 -103 BET365 +3½ -115 Sportsinteraction +3½ -115 888Sport +3½ -120

Miami 1Q +3½ over Boston

Best Odds: -103 at Pinnacle

7:30 PM EST. The Miami Heat never had a chance after the way they started game three. Like the Celtics almost always do after an embarrassing loss, Boston came out playing A+ defense in South Beach, holding the Heat to just 12 points in the first 12 minutes. The Celtics went on to win the first half 63 to 39, a deficit few teams if any could come back from against an offense with as much prowess as Boston's. Like many good defenses, when Boston can gain a lead and settle into their half court sets, they are tremendously difficult to score on. It also doesn’t help that Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr, and other typically dependable shooters couldn’t hit a shot for most of the contest. We expect that to change tonight.

Most analysts and bettors would agree that Erik Spoelstra is one of the premiere head coaches in the NBA. If you meet someone who doesn’t think so, well, walk the other way. Few gave Miami a chance to win this series, but don’t tell that to Spoelstra or his roster. In game two Miami came out aggressive, nailing 8 three-pointers in the first quarter. That’s not something we can depend on game to game, but their defense is. Miami also held Boston to just 27 points on 9-22 from the field (40.9%) in the first 12 minutes of game two, a far lower mark than what Boston is used to. The Celtics are the #1 scoring team in the association in the first quarter, averaging 31.3 points per game. Miami’s ability to physically intimidate and disrupt the Celtics team chemistry was evident right from the start of their game two win, an approach we expect again tonight.

Erik Spoelstra is 110-77 in his career in the playoffs. Many of those wins have come against the Heat's opposition tonight, and make no mistake about it – Miami believes they will win this game. It’s damn near an impossible task to overcome Boston’s hyper talented roster if the contest isn’t close from the very start. The Celtics thrive when they can shake up their opponents offense, too, but the situation favors Miami. Spoelsta is coming off a game where his team didn’t look ready, they’re at home, and if they lose their chances of surviving the series fall from slim to virtually 0%. We expect the hometown Heat to punch first in this heavyweight battle. Humbled after game three, they simply have no other choice.

Farley

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