BET365 O24½ -115 Sportsinteraction O24½ -115

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Posted at 10:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

J. Valanciunas over 24½ points/rebounds

Best Odds: -115

3:40 PM EST. The market appears intent on ignoring Jonas Valanciunas' production when Zion is off the court, so today we get another opportunity to take advantage. The big Lithuanian has been steady for the Pels in their star's absence, producing 33 and 26 points/rebounds in two games. In game one he was a rebounding machine, stacking up 20 on the night in a close loss at Oklahoma City. He followed that up with a lighter presence at the rim, snagging only 7 rebounds in game two, but the 11-year pro was happy to accrue 19 points for his offense, a struggling unit that needed it against the high-flying Thunder. Game two probably should have been the game where we saw a dip in Valanciunas' numbers, since OKC came out on fire and elevated the tempo of the contest. That almost always works for the Thunder, especially against bigger, slower teams. If there's one thing we can admit about the 7-footer, it's that he's not the quickest or most athletically gifted center. Yet Jonas dropped 19 points in just 23 minutes, eclipsing his prop lines once again. 

Game two was also an outlier for several reasons. OKC shot a ridiculous 59% from the floor, a  mark that's damn-near unheard of in the NBA playoffs. They also shot 48.3% from beyond the arc, another ridiculous hit-rate. Rebounds just weren't needed as often, and eventually the Pels chose to play a smaller lineup in an attempt to beat OKC at their own game. That was clearly a mistake by New Orleans, a squad that prefers to interrupt their opponent's rhythm with a more methodical style of play.

In this case, regression is clearly coming. The Pels are back at home and only 1-point underdogs, a designation that accounts for how different game three will feel. Valanciunas is even more productive at home, averaging 2 more points/rebounds in front of his fans, and in the final month of the regular season they really dropped their tempo, falling into the bottom-third of NBA teams with a rating of 96 (the NBA's fastest teams rate around 103, the slowest at 93). Game three will be a contest tailor made for the Pels' physical center, a guy who, without Zion, is charged with enforcing the brand of physicality and rim dominance that the Pelicans have become known for. This prop is still too low.

Farley