Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle N/A BET365 -2½ -110 Sportsinteraction -2½ -115 888Sport -2½ -117

Golden State -2½ over Miami

Best Odds: -110 at BET365

7:40 PM EST. The Miami Heat have become known as a program that no team wants to face at this point in the season, but that reputation may not hold up as well tonight. Last year at the same time, the Heat were starting to stack up wins and show their playoff-form. Suddenly any experimenting that head coach Erik Spoelstra conducted during the earlier part of their schedule was put to bed, and the Heat's offense and offense started to elevate their level of play. Even better for Miami, "playoff Jimmy" was peeking out, an amplified version of the Heat's star guard Jimmy Butler, who we've all seen take over games and lead his team further than critics thought was possible. It's become Miami's brand, part of the often repeated "Heat-Culture" intangible that Pat Riley and Spoelstra and the last two decades of South Beach basketball has offered.

But that aura, that reputation, that brand hasn't reared its head much in March. Injuries haven't made it easier - Tyler Herro remains out, along with Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love, and newly beloved supporting cast member Jaime Jaquez Jr. is questionable with a knee ailment. Even worse for Miami tonight, Jimmy Butler didn't participate in shootarounds this morning due to a non-COVID related illness, and now he may not suit up Tuesday. Because of their many injuries, their offense dropped to just 19th overall this month, although their defense has held strong (6th). Still, in March they're just 6-6 straight up, and except for a nice win where they caught the Pelicans in a bad spot, most of their victories have come against the NBA's bottom-tier (Detroit 3x, Utah, and banged up versions of Cleveland and Philly). The Heat aren't exactly firing on all cylinders yet, nor is their opponent tonight.

The difference is, the Golden State Warriors are getting very desperate. Steve Kerr's team sits in the 10th spot in the West, just ½ game in front of the Houston Rockets, which means they'd be in the play-in tournament if the regular season ended today. Of course the Warriors do not want to be a part of that tournament, but they're also in danger of never getting the opportunity. The Warriors are coming off two straight losses; losses that were particularly painful because of how they lost them. Golden State held considerable leads in each affair, but they let the Pacers and T-Wolves surge in the second half, sacrificing 57 points to Indiana and 68 to Minnesota in the final two quarters. Steve Kerr was rather upset in the press conference following their stumble against the Wolves, speaking to their lack of defensive efficacy and over-reliance on Steph Curry, who's struggled in March (22.3 ppg, easily his lowest all season). It was a "call to arms" to his team, a group that still has its most important parts, guys who have been to the mountaintop and have taken home the championship trophy before. And over the years, these are the kind of spots where Golden State usually answers.

Maybe if Jimmy Butler wasn't sick or the health of Miami's roster as a whole wasn't too poor, we'd consider betting on one of the most buttoned up programs in the association. But that's not the case. The Heat already struggle keeping up with good offensive teams, while the Warriors are maintaining a top 10 offense and top 10 tempo, a style they hope to use and overwhelm a shallow version of the home-team tonight. We like that formula for success, and we like the fact that Golden State just simply needs it more than their opponent. At a short number, we must fire.

Farley

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