Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle U223½ -102 BET365 U223 -110 Sportsinteraction U223½ -110 888Sport U223½ -110

Oklahoma City/New Orleans under 223½

Best Odds: -102 at Pinnacle

8:10 PM EST. We don't have to tell you that the modern world in 2024 relies heavily on data. We have the tools and knowledge to build massive models and hyper-analyze information like we never have before, and that's as true for sports and sports betting as it is for anything else. When handicapping, it's always critical to review what the data story tells us about who Team A and Team B truly is, even if they might be experiencing a moment of regression one way or the other. Over the course of an 82-game schedule, the sample size grows and grows as the calendar year goes on, and 5 months in we can confidently say we know a ton about every program. 

That being said, this wager has little to do with "data." On the one hand, statistics tells us clearly that the Thunder and Pelicans have been two of the best defenses in the NBA all season. Over the month of March, New Orleans has reached a new level of defensive prowess, ranking 2nd overall, but they've been a top 6 team all year. So have the OKC Thunder. Where the data could provide some confusion is how potent these two offenses can be, since we don't expect them to be overly proficient tonight. New Orleans is completely healthy and playing some of the most productive offense that they've had all season, averaging 114 ppg and ranking 7th overall in offensive efficiency. The Thunder's offense has actually taken a dip in March, rated 14th overall, but their very talented and fast-paced roster is always capable of explosive scoring potential. Full season they're a top 5 program.

So if the OKC Thunder are consistently elite on offense and if the Pelicans have been a much better offense recently, why do we like the "under" tonight? We like it for intangible reasons. As you know, data doesn't always tell the full story, and that's quite true in this case. In their first two affairs, both battles that fell well-below tonight's listed number, the games quickly turned into what felt like a war, and every shot was contested right from the opening tipoff. In their last matchup, the first quarter presented just 46 points, while the former totaled just 47. In both cases, a physical tone was established. The result was shooting percentages that were exceptionally low from each outfit, particularly from distance (neither team eclipsed 31% in either game), and a slower paced, plodding tempo for both offenses.

We don't always know the "why" behind an event that occurs, even if we have a mountain of data on a given topic. Maybe it's because these two teams are neck and neck in the West and they know that a win against the other has more meaning than most victories. Or maybe it's because both franchises have taken a turn towards better futures, mirroring each other and competing at a higher level, which can produce a more natural competitive dynamic. Whatever the case may be, these two Western Conference elites do not like each other, nor do they want the other's scoring to decide the game. There's real animosity in these contests, and we see it leading to another low-scoring game.

Farley

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