Posted at 1:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +4 -103 BET365 +4½ -115 Sportsinteraction +4½ -120 888Sport +4½ -118

Portland 1st QTR  +4½ over L.A. Clippers

Best Odds: -103 at Pinnacle

10:10 PM EST. The roller-coaster that is the Los Angeles Clippers franchise is yet again testing our perceptions of how good their team really is. Leading into the All Star break, LAC finally looked like they turned a corner and were in position to pose a real threat as a top contender in the Western Conference. From January 1st to the All Star break on February 14th, the Clippers played in 22 games and only lost 5. Kawhi Leonard was healthy and playing all-world basketball again, while Paul George was comfortable as the #2, a role where he can thrive and tip the scales in favor of their offense when needed. And even James Harden, the controversial shooting guard with immense talent but equally immense ego, looked like he finally found a home. We were perusing our options on Clippers' futures as they seemed to hit a new level of dominance, but then...

Then they took a week off during the All-Star break and became a different team, AGAIN.

Some of that is because of their health. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have been nursing nagging injuries and thus have been in and out of the lineup. Depth pieces like Normal Powell and Tre Mann have been in and out, too, but random injury concerns don't fully explain how much they've fallen. Since the break they're just 7-8 straight up, and they're even worse against the spread (5-10 ATS). Even more despicable, their offense has dropped to 11th overall, and their typically-stingy defense, something their roster and coaches usually take pride in, has dipped to a lowly 24th. The time to turn things around is now for the struggling Clippers, but we're not convinced that tonight is the most motivating spot to initiate that resurgence.

Chauncey Billups' team has fight, just like the former player and now head coach always had in his old playing days. They're a roster in flux, not close to where they need to be to become a contender, but they have plenty of talented scorers and they've played better as of late. They've covered in 7 of their last 12 contests and 7 of their last 10 first quarters, and in March only the elite have beaten them by margin (recently it was Boston, New York, New Orleans). Anfernee Simons leads an offense that can hurt their opponent when in-rhythm, and even more astoundingly, the normally volatile Deandre Ayton has stepped up his game, The former Phoenix Suns center is averaging 24 ppg in March, and that number would be even bigger (27 ppg) if he didn't just shit the bed and score only 8 against LAC last time out. We think he'll do better tonight.

Of course the Blazers also didn't cover against the Clippers in their most recent affair two days ago (by just 1-point), but the Clippers were very fortunate to beat the spread. Once again, the Clippers' defense was non-existent. Portland shot 48% from the field and 44% from beyond the arc, marks that kept them within distance for the majority of the contest. And in the first and fourth quarters, they out-scored the Clippers 61-49.

For whatever reason, the Clippers don't seem to care much about a first quarter, especially against subpar teams. And in their defense, they can usually rally and win anyway in the end, just like they did two nights ago. But this is too many for an outfit that doesn't look motivated, in-sync, or particularly sharp these days. We use this angle a lot, especially in tough spots for the favorite, and it's very possible that the Blazers can win the first quarter straight up, just like they did on Wednesday. We'll go with the home pooch early on.

Farley

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