Posted at 10:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -2 -107 BET365 -2½ -110 Sportsinteraction -2½ -105 888Sport -2½ +100

Denver 1st QTR -2½ over Minnesota

Best Odds: +100 at 888Sport 

9:10 PM EST. Something weird happened two nights ago in Dallas - the Nuggets lost. In just their second L since the All-Star break, the Dallas Mavericks outlasted the Denver Nuggets in the final seconds thanks to heroics by Kyrie Irving. Not much has deterred Denver's winning ways since February 22nd, as the champs looked to turn a corner after a full 7 days off of "funtivities" on All-Star weekend, but like any champion, they've turned up the volume as the playoffs loom. An outstanding 11-2 since the pause, Denver has an average +10 point differential per game in that span, clobbering 8 of those 13 opponents by double-digits or more. Dallas was certainly ready for the champs on Sunday, playing some of the best team-basketball we've seen from them in some time in front of a raucous home crowd, but we have plenty of reason to count on the Nuggets looking better tonight.

Part of that is because of their opponent's position. The Timberwolves are in a dead-heat with the Nuggets, tied for the second-best record in the West at 47-21, and somehow these two elite programs have only met once this season. It was a weird game at the very start of the NBA calendar, but Minnesota put out their best effort and beat Denver by 21 points, ushering in a new perception of the previously good-not-great program coached by Chris Finch. It was the Nuggets' first loss of the early schedule, and it was a display of Minnesota's new, gritty defense. That stands to change tonight.

The Timberwolves are terribly banged up. Karl Anthony Towns has been out, dealing with a torn meniscus as he goes through physical therapy and hopes to return before the playoffs start. Rudy Gobert has missed the last two games (ribs) and is in danger of missing a third tonight. And Naz Reid, the backup center who has become hugely important to Minnesota with their other two bigs injured, suffered a head-injury last night. We know how serious head-injuries are treated in pro-sports, so we doubt he'll suit up.

But even if all three suited up tonight, we're not sure the T-Wolves would be all that competitive. The Nuggets haven't been the best team for bettors this season full game - they're just 31-35-2 against the spread (ATS) - but they are extremely good in the first quarter. Since the All-Star break, Denver has only lost in the 1st period on four occasions, and they're ATS marks in the first 12 minutes are second-best overall (43-25, +14u). Only the mighty Celtics are better. Off a loss where Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray shot a combined 13-36 (36%) from the field, expect them to come out with angry intention at the start of this contest. The T-Wolves, on the other hand, are coming off a tireless battle with the Jazz last night, in a game where they struggled to maintain a lead with their depleted roster, and Anthony Edwards played for 38 minutes. They were also in Utah, so they had less than 24 hours to return home to Minnesota and prepare for their arch-rivals tonight. That's not ideal! We'll go with another hot-start from the champs.

Farley

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