Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O211½ -105 BET365 O211½ -110 Sportsinteraction O211½ -110 888Sport O211½ -110

New York/Golden State over 211½

Best Odds: -105 at Pinnacle

10:10 PM EST. Markets are understandably setting today's total between the Knicks and Warriors fairly low, that is, compared to what the NBA has produced all season. A far departure from the physicality and stingy defense we saw decades ago, the modern version of American pro-basketball produces far more points, around 230-231 ppg. We've seen many more low-totals in recent weeks, partially because of the refs' letting players be more physical, and partially because we're nearing the playoffs. Still, today's listed number remains a red flag, especially considering the offenses at hand.

The Golden State Warriors have turned a corner since late January. As we've mentioned many times before in our articles on this site, the inflexion point was the death of their assistant coach, a guy the whole team loved and mourned for a week before returning to action on January 24th. Since then the Warriors are 17-9 and their offense is rated 7th overall among all programs/ They also run at the 3rd fastest tempo. Steph Curry's recent injury bug stymied some of those numbers recently, but the Golden State offense is back humming after their latest win against the Lakers, with Curry back in the lineup. The Warriors return to the Bay area on Monday and remain home all week, a perfect opportunity to flex some high scoring for another stretch of big games as they near the postseason. With Curry in the lineup, the Warriors have scored over 120 points in 9 of their last 12 contests.

The Knicks' defense is legit. They've been the #1 rated unit in the NBA for the last few weeks, something that's helped them survive and keep winning amidst the many vital injuries they've incurred in early 2024. That's probably a big contributor to why this total is so low, but we're expecting regression. OG Anunoby is questionable to play today, another two-way, complementary guy who can score as well as he can play defense. Jalen Brunson, their #1 scorer, has been back since March 8th and has had some huge games since returning. In their last two competitions, he put up 42 and 45 points. And although the latest offensive marks suggest that New York's form isn't as sharp, that's due to change. For large stretches of the season, like December 1 through the end of January, they were a top-5 offense.

The first time these two teams battled, the Knicks struggled to score. They shot just 36.8%, a far cry from their typical efficiency (46.1%). They were also just 12-39 from beyond the arc, a despicable mark for any team. New York will want to avenge that performance and home loss to the Warriors, but they'll need to contend with a high-flying Warriors' offense if they'll have a chance at succeeding. We trust that Golden State can stimulate a high tempo and force the Knicks to play their brand of basketball, especially since their bench can keep that rhythm going (their second/third units rank 4th offensively). Oddsmakers couldn't avoid today's listed number; we can. 

Farley

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