Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O57 -108 BET365 O56½ -115 Sportsinteraction O56½ -120 888Sport O57½ +105

Denver/San Antonio 1Q over 57½

Best Odds: +105 at 888Sport

8:35 PM EST. This is a rather gross NBA slate for a Friday, but alas we combed through some angles and found one we really like. That's saying a lot for how grotesque these contests are. 

The San Antonio Spurs don't exactly profile as a marquee matchup for the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs have only won 14 games all season, obviously in an experiential campaign this year, and they're clearly no threat to the Nuggets' success. That might change in the years to come, however, since it does feature one of the more exciting matchups in the NBA today and one that should only get more intriguing in the future. Rookie superstar Victor Wembanyama will go one on one with arguably the best player in the association, Nikola Jokic, for only the second time. As the season has gone on, Wembanyama has steadily become more comfortable and consequently, more dominant. Adjusting to American basketball appears to be a synch for the 7'4" Frenchman. He already leads the association in blocks per game (3.4), and his 10.3 rebounds per game are 12th among all players. Shooting 46.7% from the field, which includes 5 three-point shots per game, he already averages nearly 21 ppg, too, which is a top 40 mark. Wembanyama looks to be on the fast track to legendary status, showing grit, toughness, and an incomparable grace for his size. From where we're sitting, he'll be the new "face of the NBA" when LeBron finally retires.

But more importantly for our wager tonight, we expect Wembanyama and Jokic's star-power to lead to a high scoring first quarter. The dynamic center-duo averages 13 ppg combined in the first period of play, and their teams average a combined 58 points. In their first matchup, a game that became closer than expected at Ball Arena, the teams combined for 74 points in the first 12 minutes. They also shot 23-40 (58%) from the floor. Like most teams, defenses must expect that Wembanyama will simply find ways to score (he had 7 points at the end of the first quarter in game one). He has that special intangible, like all stars do, where he'll just create a way to get the ball in the basket, no matter how good the opponent's defense is. Of course the former MVP, Nikola Jokic, can say the same thing, and in case you've been living under a rock - Denver's offense is still one of the best in the NBA.

As a unit the Spurs' offense is still far from one of the best in the NBA, but lately they've had some head-turning games where any onlooker could see how bright their future is. At home they also run at a top-5 tempo, which we love to stimulate even more points. We realize tonight's game will be played in Austin at a "neutral site," but that'll very much be "Spurs country." In any case, SAS dropped 251 points on the Kings in two recent games, 126 on the Warriors and 132 on OKC in two recent wins, and 117 on Indiana. Over the last 3 weeks (since Feb 22), the Spurs' offense is rated higher than it's ever been (12th). And against better teams, San Antonio tends to show more effort, and thus more production. After a low-scoring game against Houston and coming off three days of rest, we expect to see the best side of the San Antonio offense, and we can always expect exceptional offense from the former champs. We love fireworks early.

Farley

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