Posted at 1:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle U233 -112 BET365 U232 -110 Sportsinteraction U232½ -110 888Sport U232½ -110

Dallas/Chicago under 232½

Best Odds: -110 at Sportsinteraction and 888Sport

8:10 PM EST. Totals are dropping all over the NBA and although there's always a confluence of factors that cause any one thing to happen in sports (or in nature, for that matter), we see one principle reason: the playoffs are looming. Teams can't afford to exercise minimal effort on that side of the court any longer, not with their postseason position up in the air, and it's forcing closer, more physical, and lower-scoring contests. In a league where the top-half teams score 115 points per game or more, meaning the vast majority of NBA games eclipse 229 points, last night's average total was 213.4. Of course this doesn't qualify for every night and every team at this time of year - the day before we saw three totals soar into the 240s and beyond - but the general sense is that coaches and players are emphasizing and putting more effort into defense, including the two teams we've chosen for this wager.

Now don't get us wrong - the Dallas Mavericks still aren't a very good defensive team. They've improved from dead last to 26th the past week, but the good news is that they're in just as desperate of a position as their opponent tonight. The Mavericks are 8th in the West, while the Bulls sit in the 9th spot in the East. That means if the playoffs started today, they could be facing one or two game-elimination situations in the NBA's new play-in spots, not exactly an ideal position for two programs that have been wildly inconsistent this season. Every win counts.

Dallas has been an offense-heavy team most of the season. Since the All Star break they qualify as the 3rd best unit in the association, with unparalleled performances by Luka Doncic leading an offense that scores high totals on a frequent basis. But against better defensive teams, like the one they'll face tonight, Dallas can be vulnerable. In late January, they only mustered 87 points at Minnesota. In a recent affair versus Boston they only got to 110, and last Thursday they won but only scored 114 against Miami.

Chicago hasn't been as proficient on defense lately (22nd since the All-Star break), so maybe it's a little bit of a reach to compare them to the defenses that limited Dallas in the past. It's not a stretch to think that their defense and style of play will still slow this game down at a tremendous rate, however. One thing's for sure, they're not the least bit intimidated by Luka Doncic. On November 1st, in their first matchup, the Bulls kept Luka to only 18 points on 5-16 from the field. That's the second-lowest point total that we've seen from Luka all season. In addition, 7 out of the Bulls' last 10 games have fallen well below today's number, proving that Chicago-basketball hasn't changed much. They move at a molasses-pace (only the Knicks have a slower tempo rating this season), they prevent teams from scoring in the paint (1st in the NBA in that category), and they're top-10 in opponent fast-break points, something Dallas relies on to get in-rhythm.

The Bulls are a good matchup for Dallas' scorers, and it's one of the main reasons why they're only 4-point underdogs tonight. They're also at home, in an arena where their defense jumps to a top-10 rating among all NBA teams this season. Oddsmakers have released today's total based on Dallas' style of play, but we think that's sorely mistaken. Evidently so do others, because we keep seeing the number drop. The Bulls have played better lately, winners of 4 of their last 6, and they know they can't keep up with the normative production and pace of the Mavericks if they find a flow in this contest. Expect the home-team to slow this game down tremendously at certain points, which will lead this total far below where it currently sits. We have this at 224, so we must fire away!

Farley

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