Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle U221 -108 BET365 U220½ -110 Sportsinteraction U220½ -110 888Sport U220½ -110

New Orleans/Atlanta under 221

Best Odds: -108 at Pinnacle

6:10 PM EST. Oddsmakers somehow listed this total between Atlanta and New Orleans well into the 220s when it opened but bettors have moved that down considerably. We agree with that adjustment, for a myriad of reasons, but none more than the sudden changes we're seeing with the Atlanta Hawks. Shockingly, Atlanta is no longer a team that aimlessly runs the floor while only putting up points and failing to play any defense. We've joked about their predictability all season up until a few weeks ago, but there's no denying that their modality is different now. The main reason that sparked that change? No Trae Young.

Since February 25th, the Hawks' first game without their star point guard, their totals have dropped at a significant rate. Few teams were a part of more contests in the 240s, 250s, even north of the 260s at certain points, because of their previous style of play. Now, without Trae Young (7 contests), Atlanta games are only averaging 212 points. And the good news for Atlanta backers and bettors, it's not because the Hawks' offense sucks. Atlanta's defense ranks 3rd since Young went down to injury, a drastic turnaround in performance, and their tempo is now a pedestrian 23rd in the same span. The Hawks were typically one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA before, but apparently no Trae Young means a much slower dynamic. And there's no reason for Atlanta to change - they've won 5 out of their last 7 games with their new approach. As of now, they're in the final play-in spot if the postseason started today. They've also kept other programs to just 103 ppg.

Of course this is all well and good for the New Orleans' Pelicans, because this is the brand of basketball they'd rather play anyway. The Pels rank even better than the Hawks during their last 7 games, 2nd overall, and they should have little issue keeping down their opponent without their prime facilitator (Trae Young was contributing 11 assists per game before injury). They might as well be twins with the Hawks, as they're holding opposing offenses to only 104 ppg since the break. By now we're sure you know that the Pels are and have been one of the best defensive outfits in the association, predicated first on that side of the court, and they're completely healthy heading into this battle. Few teams are as physical, especially in the painted area, so this game has all the makings of a gritty war, not some flamboyant shooting spree like we see in most NBA affairs.

Let's not overthink this one. It's Sunday, the clocks just got forwarded an hour so we just missed 60 minutes of good quality sleep, and the daze of a new week is ahead of us. NBA players are human, so Sundays (aka the Sabbath, family day, rest day, you name it) can be a wonky slate, at any point during the season. But this isn't an angle or a wager that we need to question. Both teams are playing fantastic defense and they're fine grinding through games at a deliberatly sluggish tempo. We're taking the under wirh confidence.

Farley

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