Posted at 1:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +4½ -104 BET365 +4½ -110 Sportsinteraction +4½ -110 888Sport +4½ -110

Miami +4½ over Dallas 

Best Odds: -104 at Pinnacle

7:40 PM EST. We're running late today and we have no interest in bullshitting you anyway so let's get right to the handicap - there's no way the Mavericks should be getting 4½ points against the Miami Heat, especially at this time of the year.

It's always hard to fathom and figure out, but the Miami Heat simply know how to turn up the volume when they need to. Led by Jimmy Butler, who has a poise and grit reminiscent of a 90s NBA player, the Heat are starting to round into form again. Last year's Eastern Conference champions are perennially doubted and criticized by talking heads in sports and betting media, even though all they've done is prove that they're as elite as any program in the association, year after year. Top 10 in offense and defense since the All Star break, Butler is back to averaging his typical playoff numbers- 26 ppg, 7 assists, 7 rebounds per game. Bam Adebayo and the Heat's front court defense is as physical as it gets, and depth pieces like Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and the newly acquired Terry Rozier have stepped up in pivotal in-game moments. Since February 13th, the Heat have only lost 1 game (7-1 overall), punking great outfits like Sacramento, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Milwaukee along the way. This is a team we trust, unlike their opponent tonight.

We've mostly liked what we've seen from Dallas this season, but lately they're not in their best form. Since trading away Grant Williams and Seth Curry for PJ Washington, rotations have been wildly unpredictable. A great example of that is Derrick Jones Jr., a talented young forward that was getting 29-30 minutes per game before the trade. Now he's only averaging 15 minutes or less. That lack of continuity can really affect schemes and efficiency in all regards, as we're seeing plainly from Dallas right now. Although at home tonight and for their last few games, they've only won 1 of their last 6 contests. Their defense is by far the worst in the NBA since the All Star break (30th in defensive efficiency, an advanced NBA stat), and once again it's become the Luka Doncic show, literally the only constant on the Mavericks the last few seasons. That's not a winning recipe.

The market is expecting regression today; we do not. At this time of the season, this should be treated like a playoff game. Miami sits comfortably in the 6th spot in the East, while Dallas is currently 8th in the West. Oddsmakers may also be expecting a "sense of urgency" from Dallas, but we haven't seen a modicum of that since mid-February, at least not on defense. The Heat, on the other hand, have been incredibly consistent as we get closer to the postseason. Miami has OKC on the road tomorrow, which is a very difficult matchup, and we can see them treating that as a throwaway game (something to consider on tomorrow's slate). Not tonight. This is a winnable game for the visitors, and if we're treating this like a playoff game - should Dallas be 4½ point-chalk in that scenario? We don't think so. It's Heat or pass, and we're not passing.

Farley

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Florida -125
New Jersey +105

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New Jersey +105

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