Posted at 1:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O57 -111 BET365 O57 -120 Sportsinteraction O56½ -120 888Sport O57½ +100

Boston/Denver 1Q over 57½

Best Odds: +100 at 888Sport

10:10 PM EST. In a marquee game between two of the favorites to win this year's NBA title, the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics meet again. Their first matchup was a barnburner in mid-January, a game where Denver pulled it out late in a 2-point win at the TD Garden Center. Although it was an evenly matched battle for most of the contest, Denver did a better job at rebounding and shot 52% from the floor, both factors that made a huge difference. Nikola Jokic had another MVP-level performance, putting up 34 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists, and his "number two," Jamal Murray, scored 35 of his own. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown had rough outings, another reason why Boston didn't fare well in the end. Combined they shot just 15-43 from the floor (35%). 

The rematch is expected to be another fantastic game, as the spread indicates. Although at home and the defending champs, Denver is just a 1½-point favorite at home. For any bettor, it's hard to assert one side over the other. Boston remains the favorite to win the title, but the Nuggets have come out of the All-Star break on fire, winning 6 straight. That is, until their last game. A fired up Suns' team found a way to outlast the Nuggets and handed Jokic's team a 117-107 loss on their own turf. Boston looks very similar heading into this matchup, winning 5 straight after the break before flopping in the fourth quarter against the Cavs on Tuesday, permitting a 22-point comeback in a losing effort.

Which is a big part of our illustrious handicap today. Psychologically, after a disappointing loss, what does any team want to do? They want to assert themselves early and correct their mistakes from the last game. And, for what it's worth to our lovely readers, the data checks out. Boston averages 32 ppg in the first quarter after a loss. Denver? They average 28.5 ppg in the first 12 minutes after an L. And no team has been more effective from a betting perspective in the 1Q than the Celtics. They lead all NBA teams with a 21.65% ROI in first quarter spreads this season (+14.6 units), and they average 31.3 ppg in the first quarter, too (1st overall). After losing to the Suns Tuesday and losing to the Nuggets in their first clash (which also ended their 20-game home winning streak), Boston will be tough to stop early. The home team probably won't be far behind, either.

When big showcase games like this occur in the regular season, it usually fosters big totals, at least early. These squads scored 63 points in the first quarter in January, and they'll bring even more motivation on the hardwood today. If they blow up the scoreboard early, look for a live under as the game progresses; they only scored 86 combined points in the second half of matchup one.

Farley

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Florida -125
New Jersey +105

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