Posted at 10:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle U109½ -109 BET365 U109½ -115 Sportsinteraction U109½ -120

Toronto Team Total under 109½

Best Odds: -109 at Pinnacle

7:40 PM EST. Things have gone from bad to worse for Darko Rajakovi? and his team. The Serbian is in his first year as a head coach in the NBA, and while he must've known it would take time to turn Toronto into a serious contender, we're not sure if anyone thought it would go quite this bad. Toronto has now sunk to 12th in the East, three full games behind the final play-in spot, and they're not beating anyone of merit. Recent wins have come against programs like the Hornets, Pacers, Hawks, and Nets, but it's been mostly losses for Darko's program, even after their trade for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. Since January 1, top-tier teams (according to our power ratings) are annihilating the Raptors by 15 ppg on average (9 game sample size), which includes a 138-100 loss on February 5th to their same opponent tonight. 

Their biggest current weakness is that they're without Scottie Barnes. The swiss army knife has become a leader for the Raptors, the only team he's played for, and he's been incredibly productive in his third season (19.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 6.1 apg, 47.5% from the field, all career highs). Making matters worse, the versatile veteran, Bruce Brown, won't play Tuesday, nor will starting center Jakob Poeltl. The Raptors are a shell of themselves, with Gary Trent Jr., RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley remaining as the only reliable scorers, and really that's stretching it to call any in that trio, "reliable." In any case, their roster and offensive talent really drops off after that point. Darko knows that Toronto can only win with superior defense, which is just another reason to like a low-scoring contest tonight. 

The 2024 Pelicans are a lot like the elite Raptors' teams of the past. Predicated by their stingy defense, which has an array of top 5 marks, the Pelicans depend on suffocating resistance to find their edge, a stark contrast from what we see from most NBA programs. Now that doesn't mean their offense isn't good enough. It is. They score 116 points per game (14th) and their roster offers plenty of talented scorers. But the approach of Pelicans' coach Willie Green, to win with defense first, is working. They're 10-4 straight up since January 31st and they climbed to 5th in the Western Conference. Of course they can still have their wonky letdowns - like their loss against Indiana last week or a surprising upset loss to the Bulls on February 25th - but there's no denying: this is the most consistent the Pelicans have been all season.

It also might be one of the best spots we've seen all season. In a rare scheduling situation, New Orleans' last contest was Friday, so they've had all weekend and a full 3 days of rest leading up to this affair, and their next game isn't until Friday of this week, at Philadelphia. Three games in one week is about as luxurious as it gets for any NBA team, whether they're at home or not. It's worth noting that two of the Pels' most recent (and regretful) losses came in horrid scheduling spots, so they really have no excuse but to be at their best tonight. 

Still, taking the Pelicans ATS is not something we love. Expecting them to win by a full 10 points while travelling over the border and after a few days off isn't exactly guaranteed. Elite teams are graded at these numbers, and New Orleans just isn't there yet, in our opinion. What we do like is one of the NBA's premiere defenses coming in well-rested and asserting physicality in what should be a slow-moving, tough battle. This might not reach 200, so we must love the Raptors scoring less than 110 points.

Farley

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Florida -125
New Jersey +105

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