Posted at 2:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -11½ -107 BET365 -12 -110 Sportsinteraction -11½ -110 888Sport -11½ -110

Minnesota -11½ over Memphis

Best Odds: -107 at Pinnacle 

8:00 PM EST. The NBA hasn't been too kind to our wagers lately but it's about the long-term and a few shitty results shouldn't be the deciding factor on whether or not a wager should be placed. The association can be wonky, that's for sure.

What do the Memphis Grizzlies have to play for anymore? At 20-38 and without virtually all of their main scorers, they know this season is a wash. They continue to play without Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, and of course Ja Morant. That leaves Jaren Jackson Jr., who's played honorably in their absences, but it's not enough. On any given night, random names like Lamar Stevens or Vince Williams Jr. or GG Jackson will show up as their lead scorers. If you don't know any of those dudes, we get it. That's who the Grizzlies are right now, an assembly of parts that may come together on some nights but, in reality, their roster just doesn't have the talent, experience, or firepower to hang with an above-average opponent. Even worse for Memphis, they'll be without Luke Kennard tonight. He's been their starting point guard and a stabilizer for their team, so he'll be missed. The Grizzlies haven't won a road game for over a month.

On the other side, the Minnesota Timberwolves are still one of the elites in the West, sitting pretty at #1 in their conference standings, but it's been a little rocky since the break. They blew their opener at home against the Bucks, losing by 5 as 4-point favorites, and only covered against the hapless Nets the next day. Even the Spurs got the against-the-spread win last night against Minnesota, losing by 9 as 13-point underdogs. Oh yes here's that word we love: regression is coming!

Whether they've played well recently or not, against the Grizzlies the T-Wolves have been truly dominant. In three wins, Minnesota beat the spread by 13.3 points per contest versus Memphis. Their average margin of victory? - 20 points per game. And the bad news for the pooch is that two out of those three dominant victories came against a better version of the Grizzlies, when guys like Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane were still active. And in case you need any more proof that oddsmakers don't feel great about the visiting team's chances tonight - Memphis' team total is set at 97½, a grotesquely low number but one that's reminiscent of how much they're expected to struggle. Since January 1, no defense has been more effective than the Timberwolves.

Minnesota played last night but they did it smartly, using bench minutes for 44% of the game. They'll also see the return of Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT sat out Tuesday to pay respects to one of his best friends, a fellow high school teammate, who just passed away. Meanwhile this is a nightmare matchup for Jaren Jackson Jr., now the focal point of Memphis' offense, who will have to contend with two of the most talented bigs in the NBA to keep pace with the home team's output. This is a big spread, but the playoffs are looming and elite teams aren't taking their feet off the gas at this point in the season. We're taking the T-Wolves with confidence.

Farley

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